Wednesday, 3 December 2008

Advertising on www.iht.com - are you crazy?

We can debate the merits of folding iht.com (an asset with presumably some balance sheet value) into www.nytimes.com, but one thing I can tell you as a heavy user of iht.com is that their ad sales really are in the give-away zone.

I'm a daily user of www.iht.com which I look at for about one hour every day between 0500 and 0700 hrs, in order to compile my own daily narrative of the world at A Place in the Auvergne (a one year project which, I can tell you, I am looking forward to completing at the end of this month so enjoy it while you can).

I am relentlessly exposed to third party-sold filler ads (mainly adult dating sites and French supermarkets) and now a real beaut - a banner advert on virtually every single page for a prime competitor of the IHT, The Economist, a deal I am sure is barter between the two media titles.

It's a sorry state of affairs when you have to give away most of your inventory (of which you have too much in the first place) to a competitor for no cash.

What I can say however is that dominant banner advertising on a web site is certainly effective - The Economist's ad is burnt into my brain this morning - but unless the execution changes and one has multiple versions thereof, after the first three times you see it, it's just plain annoying. And not likely to make me click through.

So, the lesson for web site owners is have less inventory at higher CPMs, for advertisers to dominate a site (as the NYT recently did with Facebook to startling good affect for one day) but with multiple creative executions.

I don't think anyone has got Internet advertising figured out yet, either creatively; as hosts; and certainly not as sellers: CPMs are in the pan and the whole currency is completely debased, as is your brand when an IHT reader is exposed to adult dating sites and French supermarkets because the site has given away the inventory to Internet advertising networks to sell for peanuts.

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NYT Company update: closed at $7.19 yesterday. Still plenty of time to short it again before the upturn in 2010.

I was saying 2010 but if you look at commodity market futures contracts you might want to scratch recession, replace word depression and think 2011. I'm not sure the Grey Lady has got 2 fiscal years in here with that amount of borrowing, earnings sinking, debt cost rising....

Maybe I'm wrong. Who knows. I still think they need a smart idea or two.

In other times the smart employees would probably jump ship, but I guess there aren't many ships for the rats to run to that aren't also sinking, and then of course, there's always the addictive handcuffs of stock options (which at these prices means people are going to hang around for quite a while).

So even if the ship is sinking and the stock options are worthless why make a move to a competitor, MSM, new media, a different industry.

You have - for now - a job, a salary (a bonus?!), there's nobody out there handing out better jobs, so sit tight, cross your fingers and hope the administrator will honor your terms of employment in the event the company goes bankcrupt.

(Did you see the piece in yesterday's IHT about a Goldman Sachs partner, a bankruptcy lawyer, quitting the firm to return to a bankruptcy law firm. The reason given? He missed the law. Sure. The next day, word gets out that Goldmans are set to lose $2 billion, the first quartely loss since they went public. This guy knew where the money is for the forseeable future - in wrapping up failed giant corporates.)


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