THINK!: What is A Place in the Auvergne?

Tuesday, 14 October 2008

What is A Place in the Auvergne?

It's many things, but it's a place where I follow and understand the world.

Here's my posting of today about Monday, 13th October, 2008 (and normally I don't write myself but let the IHT's contentspeak for itself within my own narrative).

IW: In my study at 0530.

I've been troubled for some time about the undeclared war between the U.S.A and Pakistan (two nuclear states) being fought through the proxies of Afghanistan, NATO and India on the one hand - more nuclear armed countries - and a Chinese (nuclear armed)

or even Russian (another) aided Pakistan on the other.

All it needs to radically escalate is either a nuclear terrorist act or some sign of radicals gaining power in Pakistan and/or a flash-point between India and Pakistan (we already have Kashmir but there is much more in the water). Equally provocative would be the Taliban retaking Kabul because clearly their next target would be Islamabad.

And that meets hands on red buttons time, for all concerned, especially given American fears and Indian fears in a country ravaged by inter-religious violence.

Today was notable for a brewing water dispute between Pakistan and India, the Pakistani president planning on China (why now? what does he need), an American arrested in Pakistan trying to enter the tribal areas (to do or pick up what?) and the usual fighting in Afghanistan/Pakistan.

If we add to this the recent stories of nuclear scientists (a Russian most recently) trading in missile technology, and what many security analysts see as a 50/50 chance of an act of nuclear terrorism in the West within the next decade (prompting a massive middle and upper class population shift out of cities to the countryside, on a scale which will make whites with S.U.Vs leaving New Orleans before Katrina look like a couple of families going hiking), things would deteriorate very quickly.

There is no doubt the Americans would use the opportunity to mop up Iran, using nukes, on first strike, because this is their only viable military capacity so to do. But let's assume the Iranians get one or two of theirs away (Israel; a strikeable NATO capital). If that escalates, with all the aid given to Iran by a puffed-chest Russia, one can better understand why the Russians aren't quite so keen to have American missile defence systems on their borders.

Now throw into the mix a 1 in 8 chance of Sara Palin becoming the President of the United States and being at the wheel when this kicks off.

I said some time ago McCain would win: someone asked me why.

a) Lies, Lies, and more Lies, replayed time and time again about Obama;
b) Fear, real security fear, in the U.S.A and a man who got shot down and spent several years in a Vietcong prison is, apparently, a safer pair of hands;
c) Hilary voters, not many, but enough of them to tip a state or two, voting for the Republican ticket because it has a woman on it;
d) People not telling their private views to pollsters about voting intentions for Obama because the real war in the U.S.A is the undisclosed race war and there are plenty of working class, Democrat voting white men who will not vote a black man to be their president whatever they say down the phone infront of their wife and kids to a telephone pollster;
e) McCain's age and health problem history.

1 in 8 is the statistical chance on Palin becoming President of the U.S.A.

It's autumn now and I hope we don't see a tactical nuclear winter