Showing posts with label Advertising market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Advertising market. Show all posts

Thursday, 13 November 2008

Advertising Industry May Not Recover Until 2010, Citigroup Says

Finally, a MSM outlet gets to the self-evident point.

This isn't a 2009 advertising slow down problem, this is going to go well into 2010.

If you take the ad revenue forecasts below, and apply them to NYT and IHT revenues re. 2007 (see the last annual report for details) you can well see that something don't add up.
Bottom line, when the NYT Company comes to renegotiate its debt who is going to lend it and at what price?

This is going to get brutal or it's going to get clever, clever meaning some game changing ideas for the NYT OR some sort of private philanthropic bailout leading to Newspaper Capitalism 2.0.

My money is currently on brutal.


Advertising Industry May Not Recover Until 2010, Citigroup Says
By Philipp Schlaeger
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Advertising in the U.S. may not recover until 2010 if businesses wait for the economy to bounce back before boosting marketing spending, analysts at Citigroup Inc. said.
Ad spending across all media, including print, broadcast and the Internet, may fall 1.8 percent this year and 3.6 percent in 2009, Citigroup's
Catriona Fallon and her colleagues said in a report yesterday. Citigroup had originally projected growth of 0.2 percent in 2008 and a decline of 0.3 percent next year.
Because campaigns take time to plan and execute, an ad recovery can lag behind a resurgence in the economy, the report said. While the Beijing Olympics and political campaigns contributed to ad revenue this year, local and national ad media have experienced ``severe slowdowns,'' the report said.
``We now see a sharp falloff in consumer spending and economic output and a high likelihood of a recession through most of 2009,'' Fallon wrote. ``We believe U.S. advertising spending will see the first back-to-back annual declines since at least the 1950s.''
Newspaper spending may suffer the biggest drop, slipping 16.3 percent this year and 12.5 percent the next, Citigroup forecast. Internet spending growth, projected at 11.4 percent for 2008, could slow to 5.8 percent in 2009, according to the report. Search-based ads and digital video are among the few bright spots in online advertising, Fallon said.
The U.S. economy will probably grow 1.6 percent this year and 1.1 percent in 2009, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. The same survey suggests fourth-quarter gross domestic product will contract 0.35 percent, following last quarter's 0.3 percent drop.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Philipp Schlaeger in New York at pschlaeger@bloomberg.net Last Updated: November 11, 2008 11:02 EST
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LOOKING FOR A CHRISTMAS BOOK GIFT TO BUY?
"Books about cosmopolitan urbanites discovering the joys of country life are two a penny, but this one is worth a second glance. Walthew's vivid description of the moral stress induced by his job as a high-flying executive with the International Herald Tribune newspaper is worth the cover price alone…. Highly recommended."
The Oxford Times

Amazon.co.uk






'I read
A Place in My Country with absolute unalloyed delight. A glorious book.'
Jeremy Irons (actor)

‘Ian Walthew was a newspaper executive with a career that took him round the world, who one day did a mad thing. He saw a for-sale sign on a cottage in the Cotswolds, bought it, resigned and moved in. For the first few weeks he just lay on the grass in a daze. Then he started talking to his neighbours and digging into the rich history of this beautiful part of England. Out of his inquiries grew this affecting and inspiring memoir.What sets it apart from others of its ilk is the author’s enviable immunity to cliché and his determination to love his homeland better than he used to.
Financial Times

Amazon.com




For more reviews visit
ianwalthew.com






Friday, 31 October 2008

WPP predicts "very tough" 2009 (IHT)

Reuters
Thursday, October 30, 2008
LONDON: WPP Group , the world's second-largest advertising firm, on Thursday predicted 2009 would be a very tough year after reporting third quarter revenue growth broadly in line with expectations.
The warning, including the acknowledgment that the Olympic Games had not produced the "Beijing Bounce" that was expected, follows similar dire predictions from other advertising groups such as Omnicom and Publicis .
WPP also said its headline operating margin was flat in the first nine months and said it would not now be easy to attain its margin target for 2008 of 15.5 percent.
WPP, whose agencies include JWT and Ogilvy & Mather, posted like-for-like revenue growth of 3 percent and reported revenue growth of 16.2 percent to 1.72 billion pounds.
Analysts had been expecting like-for-like revenue growth of 3.3 percent according to a Reuters poll of 7 analysts and reported revenues of 1.66 billion pounds.
WPP shares hit near 10-year lows in recent weeks on fears about the economic downturn and after Omnicom, the world's largest ad firm by market cap, reported retail and automotive clients beginning to push back and even cancel some ad plans.
"It is still likely that rates of like-for-like revenue growth, particularly by region, will vary significantly in 2009, as in 2008," the group said. "Whatever the pattern, it is not likely that our budget will reflect the Armageddon currently predicted by the fall in stock prices."
(Reporting by Kate Holton; Editing by David Cowell)







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LOOKING FOR A CHRISTMAS BOOK GIFT TO BUY?
"Books about cosmopolitan urbanites discovering the joys of country life are two a penny, but this one is worth a second glance. Walthew's vivid description of the moral stress induced by his job as a high-flying executive with the International Herald Tribune newspaper is worth the cover price alone…. Highly recommended."
The Oxford Times
Amazon.co.uk

Amazon.com
For more reviews visit ianwalthew.com

Wednesday, 29 October 2008

Advertising groups issue dire slowdown warnings (IHT)


Reuters
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
By Kate Holton and Paul Thomasch
Three of the world's largest ad groups have issued dire warnings about an industry slowdown, as economic upheaval throws planned spending on advertising from TV commercials to Web searches into doubt.
The forecasts from Publicis , Interpublic Group and Aegis on Tuesday followed solid-third quarter results by each of the groups, showing they have so far weathered the storm.
But with economic troubles deepening, the advertising market is now at risk of suffering its biggest slowdown since 2001.
France's Publicis, the world's third-largest ad group by market capitalisation, reported third-quarter results in line with expectations but forecast a difficult end to 2008 and worse for 2009.
U.S.-based Interpublic Group, the world's fourth-largest, posted higher-than-expected quarterly profit and strong organic growth, but warned that the financial crisis had jeopardized marketing budgets.
Britain's smaller peer Aegis completed the trio, reporting solid organic growth before saying it could no longer predict how much companies would spend on advertising and was therefore cautious on its full-year outlook.
"We believe our industry will face a difficult end of 2008 and a marked slowdown in 2009," Publicis Chairman and Chief Executive Maurice Levy said.
Interpublic Chief Executive Michael Roth said the group was still set to achieve its 2008 financial goals but noted that the impact of the "increasingly unsettled and volatile business environment" on the sector was not yet clear.
Last week, Omnicom Group , the world's largest advertising company, said retail and automotive clients were beginning to push back and even cancel some advertising plans.
The results follow moves by leading media buyers, such as ZenithOptimedia, to slash global advertising spend forecasts for 2008 and 2009.
STATE OF PLAY
At 1:38 p.m., shares in Publicis were up 3.5 percent at 16.35 euros, having recovered from an earlier fall, while shares in Aegis fell 9.1 percent to 57.75 pence in a higher market.
Shares in IPG were up 11 percent at $4.56, recovering a small portion of the 50 percent the stock lost in the last month on fears about the state of the advertising market.
WPP , the world's second-largest ad group which reports on Thursday, was up 3 percent after initially falling on the European companies' outlooks.
Publicis, whose clients include food group Nestle , energy giant Total and airline Emirates , pledged to tap the digital sector and emerging countries to grow market share and protect its margins.
Its sales rose 5.1 percent at constant exchange rates, with organic growth of 3.9 percent. The company said the third quarter had ended with higher organic growth than expected given the global financial crisis.
Interpublic posted third-quarter organic revenue growth, a closely watched figure that excludes the impact of recent acquisitions and foreign currency, of 7.6 percent and a rise in revenue of 11.5 percent to $1.74 billion (1.1 billion pounds).
Aegis, which posted 9-month organic revenue of 7.3 percent, said it would manage its cost base tightly and said it still expected to benefit from the strength of the euro and the U.S. dollar in relation to sterling.
"Clearly slowing growth is not intrinsically positive, but it is no surprise and we believe that these (Publicis) results and comments should prove reassuring relative to some concerns in the market," UBS analyst Alastair Reid wrote in a note.
Reid described the Aegis organic growth as robust but forecast full-year growth of 4.9 percent, implying a significant sharp slowdown in the fourth quarter.
"Aegis currently trades on around 7.5 times 2009 earnings, broadly inline with Publicis," he said. "Whilst this appears inexpensive ... we believe that with consensus earnings downgrades coming through and the lack of visibility for the company, the stock is likely to come under further pressure near-term."
(Additional reporting by James Regan and Cyril Altmeyer in Paris)
(Editing by Erica Billingham)



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LOOKING FOR A CHRISTMAS BOOK GIFT TO BUY?
"Books about cosmopolitan urbanites discovering the joys of country life are two a penny, but this one is worth a second glance. Walthew's vivid description of the moral stress induced by his job as a high-flying executive with the International Herald Tribune newspaper is worth the cover price alone…. Highly recommended."
The Oxford Times



Slaughtering the Cash Cows a Bit Too Early (Content Bridges)


Content Bridges
Content Bridges connects the rough edges of old and newer media, linking new revenue lines and the democratizing value of digital content
October 27, 2008
Slaughtering the Cash Cows a Bit Too Early
New Post: Christian Science Monitor Flipping the Switch
For an industry already on a ventilator, today's FAS-FAX numbers just steal more breath.
The double-digit
declines -- the Atlanta Journal Constitution at 13.6% daily, the Dallas Morning News at 9.2% daily and the critical-listed Newark Star-Ledger down 10.4% daily -- shouldn't be a surprise, but they are surprising in their magnitude.
Recall that newspaper CEOs have been saying for a couple of years now that circ declines should plateau soon, as they've pruned out-state and other costlier, and less-attractive-to-advertiser circulation. The
story they've told themselves, and us, is that the print business was stabilizing.
In fact, the circulation decline is going the other way -- deepening. Down 4.6% daily and 4.8% Sunday, these are new lows and a trend further downward from the largely 2.5-3.5% declines we've seen over the last four years.
Let's connect the dots.
One big reason the numbers are declining is the product itself. In the last year, we've seen unprecedented cuts in the product -- and the customers are noticing. It looks like the amount of newsprint is down about 10-15%; some in stories, some in ads. Trusted bylines have disappeared overnight. Readers notice, and talk to their friends, and they're saying: it's not the newspaper it used to be. When the subscription notices come, they're a little less likely to be acted upon.
In a sense, newspapers have been slaughtering the cash cows -- print revenues still drive more than 85% of the business -- a bit too fast. No doubt, what we're talking about big picture is the transition of the business from print to digital. What today's numbers show is that the movement is accelerating, an acceleration caused both by larger forces (younger readers preferring online, the new green revolution) and by publishers' own cost-cutting. The continuing crunch issue in that: readers online are still worth no more than a dime compared to the dollar in print. So while slashing print costs is a necessity, it is robbing print revenue at the same time. It's an ungainly process, and once started is hard to manage. In fact, it could be like a runaway train, which once dispatched, takes on a velocity of its own. If you're the CEO of such a company, you may feel more like you're a passenger along for the ride, than the engineer in control.
Today's numbers, of course, predate the financial meltdown and now all-bit-official recession. Consumers are shell-shocked, reeling from paper losses on real estate and retirement accounts and fearful of job loss or reduction. We've seen ad spend forecasts decline almost weekly, and we can guess that the next FAS-FAX will be hurt further by these consumer fears.
Otherwise, the data shows a mostly familiar story:
National papers are doing better than metros. The Wall Street Journal and USAToday are both flat, the New York Times down 3.5%. We've seen this trend, more or less, for four years now.
Community dailies are doing better than metros. Check out the Jen and Fitz
list. It's heavy on these dailies that have both better community connection and less commoditized content. Same trend as last four years as well.
Yes, overall audience, now measured by industry's Scarborough combined
report, is growing. However, flagging online growth numbers -- largely because of the reliance on classified bundling -- show that taking advantage of this new combined audience is an early-stage, slow-moving, work-in-progress.
New blood does not equal turnaround. Despite Brian Tierney's spirited, take-it-to-the community campaign in Philly, the Inquirer's down another 11% daily. In Minneapolis, on-the-brink Avista suffered another 4% daily decline. Tribune, with its raft of changes (though most of the redesigns occurred at the end of the reporting period), took losses, including 7.75% at the Chicago Tribune.
Sunday's as hard hit as daily. The big ad day was down another 5%. That will translate into still less of a mass market, and less print revenue in 2009.
Well, maybe we can blame a little-bitty part of today's announced swoon on broadcasters. Newspaper people have long liked to joke how their morning papers served as both tip sheets and often actual reportage for broadcasters. Rip 'n read. Now ABC News is adding
injury to insult, cancelling all print subs. So to whatever extent ABC staff (and local broadcasters) are using newspapers these days, they'll take the content -- for free -- off the web, like apparently almost everyone else. The memo:
As of December 1, we will cancel all subscriptions (newspaper and magazine) for executives and production employees and move them to on-line. This change will have the added benefit of helping the environment. If there are particular circumstances where you believe this will materially impair your ability to get your work done, you should make your case to your executive producer or supervisor by November 15th.

Ken Doctor of Content Bridges



READ AN ALTERNATIVE IHT DAILY NARRATIVE AT
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LOOKING FOR A CHRISTMAS BOOK GIFT TO BUY?
"Books about cosmopolitan urbanites discovering the joys of country life are two a penny, but this one is worth a second glance. Walthew's vivid description of the moral stress induced by his job as a high-flying executive with the International Herald Tribune newspaper is worth the cover price alone…. Highly recommended."
The Oxford Times



Amazon.co.uk
Amazon.com
For more reviews visit www.ianwalthew.com



Wednesday, 22 October 2008

Luxury brands and 2009 Advertising forecasts for IHT

There is a hardly a piece of good news for anyone putting together a 2009 advertising budget for the IHT.

But for the IHT a couple of headlines caught my eye hard.

Japanese buy less, and European fashion houses suffer

Outlook seen challenging for luxury goods in 2009
http://www.iht.com/articles/reuters/2008/10/21/business/OUKBS-UK-LUXURY-OUTLOOK.php


Luxury brands, fashion and renewable energy have been the backbone of the IHT's 2008 advertising revenue, and all are in retreat.

Time to re-do those forecasts - again. But where are the cost cuts going to come from? Over at the FT, there is news of 60 layoffs.

NYT Co. Chief Advertising Officer Discusses Plans to Help Advertisers, Increase Spending




Tuesday, Oct 21


In an effort to stem falling advertising revenues, The New York Times is being proactive. The company recently launched a new trade campaign, To The Power of The Times, designed to show advertisers the value of spending their money with the brand and also came out with an extensive marketing survey detailing how word of mouth among affluent women can help brands expand.
We spoke with
Denise Warren, senior VP, chief advertising officer of The New York Times Media Group, earlier about the two campaigns. She described how they will help her company retain advertising revenue and understand its consumers better, as well as what the future holds.
"[The trade campaign] is designed to get you to focus on the impact of advertising in The New York Times," Warren said. It's equates simple, well-known mathematical formulas with the Times to show how advertising with the paper can benefit a company or brand. In the future, Warren explained that the NYT Co. will break the campaign down even further to target specific section of advertisers (fashion, retail, etc.)
The marketing survey details affluent women, and specifically a group of "Women Marketing Multipliers." "They talk more about products," Warren said. "They consume more products. And to the extent that we can help advertisers more effectively reach them, that helps advertisers create more efficiency in their advertising buys."
Was the campaign successful? "Way too soon" to tell how it's worked, Warren thought, adding that the press releases for the marketing campaign had just gone out a couple days ago and that so far, response had been positive.
So what's on tap for the future? "We are just getting the results back from an international study," Warren said. "I'm hoping we will be able to call it 'Global Marketing Multipliers' but I don't know until we get the results back. It's really an attempt to understand the global influential audience."
Posted by Noah
04:18 PM Newspapers




Here's the Women Multiplier Press Release for those that buy it, which knowing how this household functions, I do.


The New York Times Releases Results of First Ever Public Study of Word of Mouth among Affluent Women
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--October 20, 2008
The New York Times Customer Insight and Advertising Groups announced today the results of a study that for the first time offers detailed information about reaching a key group of affluent, female consumers who have an exponential influence on purchase decisions - the ones who spend more, know more and talk more about the products they like. This is the first major public study ever released that focuses on word of mouth among affluent women. It provides much-needed insight into reaching these key consumers in five major industries: finance, fashion, consumer electronics, automotive and travel.
Given that studies suggest that a majority of consumer purchase decisions are made or influenced by women, this research fills an important gap in understanding how to increase marketing return on investment in today's challenging economic environment.
Based on extensive qualitative interviews and a survey of more than 3,000 women with household incomes of at least $100,000, the research uncovers the behavioral and personality traits that separate these influential women, Marketing Multipliers, from other affluent women.
The study quantifies the purchasing power and influence of this vital consumer target. For example:
-- Marketing Multipliers in the consumer electronics category have almost five times as many conversations about these products than other affluent women; they spend more than twice as much; and more than half (52%) say they accompany family members on shopping trips to advise them on consumer electronics and other tech items.

-- Marketing Multipliers in the fashion category spend more than twice as much as other affluent women on clothes and accessories. They serve as walking, talking ads for their favorite brands: 76% are asked by others where they bought the clothes they are wearing (compared to only 24% of other affluent women).

-- In the travel category, Marketing Multipliers take twice as many trips, and talk more than four times as often about travel brands - including hotels, airlines and car rentals - than other affluent women.


"In a time of tight marketing budgets and an increased focus on return, this study provides advertisers a much better understanding of consumers who are powerful catalysts for purchase behavior and brand influence," said Denise Warren, senior vice president and chief advertising officer, The New York Times Media Group. "The Marketing Multipliers research will help advertisers effectively reach and communicate with this key group of customers."


The New York Times research identified a combination of extensive social networks, past recommending behavior and personality traits that differentiate Marketing Multipliers from other affluent women. The findings show that while Marketing Multipliers have the exact same demographic characteristics of other affluent women, they differ in a number of important ways, including:


-- Marketing Multipliers have different media behavior, especially online, and are active contributors to the virtual world, not just passive readers. For example, they are twice as likely to post to blogs or to publish their own Web pages, compared to other women. They are also discriminating in vetting their sources: 71% of Marketing Multipliers say it is important for an ad to be "on a Web site that I consider trustworthy."

-- Helping other people, learning new things and knowing people from different walks of life are much more important to Marketing Multipliers than to other affluent women. Above all, they are plugged in to new trends: Marketing Multipliers are more than three times more likely to say being an authority - on what is in and what is out - is important to them.-- Marketing Multipliers are more likely to seek out in-depth information on products. In the investment category, for example, 45% follow up on new investment products they see advertised, and 53% of Marketing Multipliers in the Automotive category "follow information related to new safety features."


The research was conducted in conjunction with TSC (The Segmentation Company), a division of Yankelovich, which surveyed more than 3,000 affluent women across the country via an online survey. Additionally, the research company Just Ask a Woman conducted a series of in-depth, ethnographic interviews in New York and Los Angeles regarding the five topic areas.


For more information about specific industry insights and a copy of the white paper, contact Alexis Buryk at 212-556-1234.


Tuesday, 21 October 2008

Resolved to keep on marketing, even in tight-fisted times (IHT)

I blogged on this exact point yesterday:

Joseph Tripodi, chief marketing and commercial officer at the Coca-Cola Company, whose Coca-Cola brand is the strongest in the world, according to a new survey by Interbrand, evoked imagery from the Great Depression."Don't go to the ledge," Tripodi said. "Don't let the urgent overwhelm the important.""It's very easy now to panic, and we cannot panic," he added. "Invest in your brands now, especially in these dry times. The easiest thing is to shut down, and that's the worst thing."


By Stuart Elliott
Monday, October 20, 2008
ORLANDO, Florida: Attendees of a big annual conference for marketers, held here last week, could have been forgiven for believing they had stumbled into a symposium for scholars of American history in the 1930s.
These are some of the words and phrases heard during the conference, the 98th annual meeting of the Association of National Advertisers: "financial crisis," "scary," "foreclosure," "economic crisis," "difficult times," "the chaotic financial markets," "devastating," "under siege" and "unprecedented."
There were even references to "Happy Days Are Here Again," which became the unofficial theme song of those who fought to forestall the effects of the Great Depression, and to "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself," the encouraging words of Franklin D. Roosevelt during his first inaugural address, in 1933.
"The consumer is sitting at the bottom of a bunker with his head in his hands, wondering if it's safe to come out," Jez Frampton, global chief executive at Interbrand, an Omnicom Group agency specializing in corporate and brand identity, said during a general session of the conference.
"It's up to us to stimulate demand in the marketplace again," he added.

Whether the members of the association — 400 companies that together spend an estimated $100 billion a year on advertising and other forms of marketing — are willing to stick to the spending plans they made "before the globe went mad," as Frampton put it, is a crucial question.
If marketers cut budgets, that could intensify the recent sharp downturn in consumer spending. Conversely, by maintaining, or increasing, spending levels, they just might shorten the length of whatever recession might be coming (if it is not already here).
"Look, everyone is going to want to cut, but no one wants to be first to say it in public," said one attendee, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because his company has not completed its planning for 2009.
"That's especially true given that we still have some time before Christmas," the attendee said, referring to the importance of the holiday shopping season for marketers and retailers. "Anyone who says anything now could go down as the Grinch who stole Christmas."
The closest any speaker came to tipping his or her hand was Anne Saunders, brand and advertising executive at Bank of America.
"We aren't done planning '09 yet," Saunders said, so "we're not concluding at the moment that we would necessarily cut" spending.
If a decision is reached to make cuts, "we don't expect to see a substantial cut," she added, because "it would be a mistake to say you don't need to continue to tend your brand, even in a challenging market like this."
Other speakers made the same point, in more emphatic and colorful language.
"It's incredibly important to be risk-takers in the economic climate we're in," said Michael Mendenhall, senior vice president and chief marketing officer at Hewlett-Packard, when "people have a tendency to pull back."
"In economic times like these, you don't hunker down and go in the bunker," he added.
Rebecca Saeger, executive vice president and chief marketing officer at the Charles Schwab Corporation, quoted Mendenhall approvingly in her remarks and added: "Let's all go for growth. Let's see this as an opportunity."
Increasing sales and profits has "never been more important," said Saeger, who was elected during the conference as the chairwoman of the association for 2008-10. "There has never been a more crystal-clear realization of why you need a strong brand."
Joseph Tripodi, chief marketing and commercial officer at the Coca-Cola Company — whose Coca-Cola brand is the strongest in the world, according to a new survey by Interbrand — evoked imagery from the Great Depression.
"Don't go to the ledge," Tripodi said. "Don't let the urgent overwhelm the important."
"It's very easy now to panic, and we cannot panic," he added. "Invest in your brands now, especially in these dry times. The easiest thing is to shut down, and that's the worst thing."
James Stengel, who is retiring from his post as global marketing officer at Procter & Gamble, was asked whether consumers seeking to save money might be tempted to switch to private-label products from brand names. That would mean paying less attention to ads for brands — no matter how much marketers spent.
That is unlikely, Stengel replied, if marketers understand that "in these times, people are looking for the right value."
"If we're there for consumers when they need us," he added, "I'm sure we'll be fine."
Procter, the world's largest advertiser, survived "tough times" in countries hit hard by recent economic crises, Stengel said, like Argentina and Russia. He even remarked on how Procter made it through the '30s.
Two speakers described how the upheaval in the American economy is inspiring advertising campaigns.
"Right now, given where America is, people need to go back to the comfort of home," said Mark Addicks, senior vice president and chief marketing officer at General Mills. So a new campaign for the company's Pillsbury brand will carry the theme "Home is calling."
A commercial that Addicks showed, by the Saatchi & Saatchi division of the Publicis Groupe, began with people from all walks of life clicking their heels together like Dorothy in "The Wizard of Oz" and ended with a family coming home to a meal with Pillsbury crescent rolls.

Claire Bennett, senior vice president for marketing at American Express, said the "challenging environment" gave her brand "a unique opportunity" because of its "legacy of trust and confidence."
"We will be talking about that in the coming months," she added, and "our own card members can speak for us."
The entreaties of the speakers may have influenced the estimated 1,200 attendees at the conference, based on results of instant polls during two general sessions.
Asked about immediate plans, 33 percent of respondents said they would maintain the level of their marketing spending, 33 percent said they would reduce spending and 27 percent said they would spend more. (The rest were unsure.)
And when asked about 2009 compared with 2008, the largest number of respondents, 28 percent, predicted stability, followed by 26 percent who forecast spending increases of more than 10 percent. Nineteen percent predicted decreases of more than 10 percent, 14 percent predicted decreases of less than 10 percent, and 13 percent predicted growth of less than 10 percent.





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Monday, 20 October 2008

The three best economic indicators in the world to tell you when to buy shares in which companies

My stock picking technique works on a number of variables but my personal favourites are:


a) talking with Black Cabs drives in London - if business is slowing for them time to run;


b) quarterly reports of temporary/interim employment agencies - cut backs show up in real time earnings and reveal more, I believe, than advertising spending and earlier;


c) corporate advertising buys: if a big global company buys a big global campaign buy their stock - they've got money to burn and they know something we don't (The inverse also holds true e.g when did you last see an exspensive brand campaign from the IHT?) That doesn't mean hold their stock, just that there is in MHO a direct correlation between big investor relations/corporate brand campaigns and short-term stock market moves (6-12 months). Someday an economist will do a study on this and I will be proved wrong/right.





However, a big buy in a monthly in a market that is moving faster than magazine delivery trucks does not count. HSBC - big exposure to Asia, big exposure to Asian financial crisis to come/come harder. That said, this campaign began in September...On the edge.





The more dynamic point here is that a) someone thinks print is still a good idea and b) entire print issue/internet inventory for one day or more buys and full page only ads in newspapers might be a model for the future.








October 20, 2008
HSBC Sponsors Entire Issue of New York Magazine
By DOUGLAS QUENQUA
There is more than one way to look at
HSBC Bank’s decision to buy 24 ad pages in this week’s New York magazine, making it the largest single-issue advertiser in the magazine’s history.
Given the recent turmoil in the banking industry, one could see it as a case of bad timing. Is the American public really in the mood for an aggressive marketing pitch from a bank right now?
Or one could consider it kismet: Now more than ever, Americans need to be reassured of their financial security and the stability of their financial institutions. The ads in New York center on the idea that people see things differently depending on their position in life, and that HSBC understands that, making it well-suited to work with all kinds of people in all kinds of financial situations.
Not surprisingly HSBC, the largest European bank with operations in 83 countries around the world, is taking the second view. The bank says its domination of the Oct. 27 issue of New York, which has been in the works for several months, delivers the right message at the right time.
“Now more than ever before people are reappraising not just how they manage their money, but what’s important to them,” Tracy Britton, head of marketing for HSBC Bank, North America, said. “This campaign is very timely and appropriate.”
HSBC’s New York presence, which includes every full-page ad in the magazine before the listings section as well as the back cover, extends online as well. The bank will be the sole advertiser on
NYMag.com on Monday and Tuesday of this week, with a “significant share of voice” after that. HSBC is also sending e-mail messages to subscribers inviting them to enter a contest to help write the copy for a later ad.
Buying most or all of the ads in a magazine — or on a Web site or TV show — has become a popular tactic in recent years as marketers try to stand out in an increasingly cluttered field. Target bought all the ads in an issue of
The New Yorker in 2005, and this year ABC bought all the ads in a single issue of TV Guide.
The single- or dominating-sponsor approach is attractive to publishers at a time when magazine ad sales are falling. Consumer magazine ad pages fell 12.9 percent in the third quarter of this year, according to the
Publishers Information Bureau. New York magazine’s ad pages fell 1.7 percent from 2007 to 2008.
Neither HSBC nor New York, which is published by New York Media Holdings, would discuss the cost of the ad package, but according to New York’s rate card, a single full-page ad costs about $64,000, and the back cover is about $81,000, which places the value of HSBC’s buy at about $1.6 million. However, publishers typically give considerable discounts for bulk buying.
The New York ad buy is one part of a global campaign from HSBC that began in September called “Different Values.” The effort is centered on print ads that show a single picture of an everyday object repeated three times, each with a single word offering an interpretation of the image. For example, a picture of a baby is shown with the words “love,” “legacy” and “expense.”
Such ads are running in Vanity Fair, The Week, GQ, Harper’s and others. Of the 15 such ads in this week’s New York 10 were created specifically for the issue.
The campaign also includes a television ad, created as a 90-second spot but shown in 60- and 30-second versions as well, that tells the story of a woman who is arrested in a protest of a logging operation, but is revealed to be romantically involved with a lumberjack. A voiceover says, “We recognize how people value things differently. So what we learn from one customer helps us better serve another.”
The ads were created by HSBC’s agency, JWT of New York and London. JWT is part of the
WPP Group.
Although HSBC has largely been absent from the headlines surrounding the banking industry’s troubles, it is facing challenges of its own. It reported a 29 percent decline in profit for the first six months of 2008, and its stock price has fallen about 30 percent in the last year to about $70 a share.
This leads to a third possible interpretation of the New York ad buy: a show of strength.
“HSBC is choosing to make a strong statement when there’s a lot of turmoil” among its competitors, Ellen Oppenheim, chief marketing officer for the Magazine Publishers of America, said.




P.S Corporate identity advertising all about VALUES not FUNCTIONALITY or CONTENT.

Question: what are the love brand values of the New York Times and how do these differ from the IHT?

Answers on an email please....






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Bang on right. In the core of a Depression both Newsweek and Esquire launched.

Lots and lots and lots of people and companies lose a packet in a recession/depression. But lots of others make a bundle. No time for the faint hearted. Invest in your future or die.



November Continues The Monthlies' Ad-Page Recession (-14.09%).

In an earlier era, publishers might have asked, Brother can you spare a page?, because the poor differentials look 1930s-ish. A little solace, though, comes from increased integrated-marketing programs, which means that publishers are less dependent on pages in 2008 than they were in 1933, though we note that in spite of that being the "core" of the Depression, both Newsweek and Esquire launched. Amidst all the November minuses is a nice plus in Self (+25.00%), as vp/publisher Kim Kelleher will celebrate 2008 with the August birth of her second son and--maybe--an up year (+1.27% through November). Fast Company publisher Christine Osekoski is a shoo-in to end her first full year up (+26.83% through November), but Playboy publisher (since January 2006) Lou Mohn's +26.31% November could not prevent Playboy Enterprises stock from trading at near its $1.70-per-share low. Unhappy post-anniversary... to Harper's Bazaar senior vp/publishing director Valerie Salembier, with November's -23.24% competing with last year's 140th-birthday celebration. See minonline for November's monthly chart. See the complete chart in min.

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Thursday, 16 October 2008

Ad agencies try to capitalize on financial crisis through 'borrowed interest' (IHT)

Recent ads from Burger King have focused on value for customers in difficult times.

(Dimas Ardian/Bloomberg News)

By Stuart Elliott
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
NEW YORK: For more than a year, banks, insurance companies and brokerage firms have been running campaigns that address the tumultuous economic conditions. Now, they have company.
Purveyors of products that are unrelated to finance are getting into the act, placing advertisements that seek to take advantage of the attention the public is paying to Wall Street and the credit crisis.
"Life hurts. Laughs help" is the theme of an online campaign for HBO Video, part of the HBO unit of Time Warner, which sells DVDs of comedy series like "Curb Your Enthusiasm" and "Flight of the Conchords."
The campaign cites several situations that require a sense of humor. One, for example, is: "You just opened up a mutual fund. That falls more often than your toddler." The campaign is by Venables Bell & Partners in San Francisco.
Brooks Brothers is running ads in newspapers that reprint a 1942 pitch about the retailer's suits. "It pays to buy at Brooks Brothers," the vintage ad said, because the most economical clothes "are those that are made to last."
"Just as our ad stated in the 1940s," the current ad declares, "during these uncertain times, Brooks Brothers is still the investment you can trust."
Marketers outside the financial services industry have been running campaigns for several months that are inspired by the faltering economy. Those ads present products as smart buys because they offer value for money, but do not refer directly to why shoppers may be pinching pennies.
The new ads, by contrast, invoke news headlines in a tactic that is known in marketing as borrowed interest, which hopes to gain attention by riding the coattails of important and topical events.
For instance, television commercials from Walt Disney Co., selling tickets for the Broadway musical "Mary Poppins," feature members of the audience who make remarks like, "You think of everything going on in the world, and it just becomes magic," and "So well worth the money, and the uplifting of the spirit in these difficult times."
Ads that play off the financial news can be risky, because the losses involved - of retirement nest eggs, money, jobs - are no laughing matter.
"It's a fine balance," said Dean Crutchfield, a branding consultant in New York.
On one hand, "people are having difficulty," Crutchfield said, but on the other, "it's too big an opportunity to miss."
The best approach is to "find out if it works with your target audience" before producing the campaign, "otherwise, it can blow up in your face."
One marketer, Volkswagen of America, has decided that referring to the economy in new ads inspired by current conditions - which will reintroduce a lease promotion called Sign Then Drive - would not fit with its brand image.
"It would be inconsistent with the tonality" of Volkswagen ads, said Tim Ellis, vice president for marketing in Herndon, Virginia, which "take a 'Singin' in the Rain' standpoint regardless of the economic climate - always optimistic and positive."
Volkswagen had planned to bring back the promotion in November, said Mark Barnes, chief operating officer, "but when we saw the, shall we say, exodus of leasing from the market, we saw an opportunity to bring it forward" to last Friday.
Another marketer shying from mentioning the economy in economy-themed ads is Burger King, which has commercials with its King character playing Robin Hood: He puts money back into the pockets of customers who buy items from the BK Value Menu.
The intent is to play down the problem and play up that "we have a solution," said Rob Reilly, partner and co-executive creative director at the Burger King agency, Crispin Porter & Bogusky, in Boulder, Colorado, and Miami, part of MDC Partners.
"The problem is out there every day," Reilly said. "Do you really need to make a point of it?"
Some agencies are not as reluctant.
Wikreate, an agency in San Francisco, even gave a recent "Celebrate the Crisis" party. Attendees were asked to shred the financial sections of newspapers and toss the scraps over their shoulders while shouting, "Crisis, schmisis!"
"The crisis is part perception, part reality," said Ezequiel Trivino, founder and president at Wikreate (pronounced "we create"). "If we are optimists, if we feel we can get out of the crisis, it will be less prevalent."
Besides, he added, laughing, the party was organized to "celebrate in the least-expensive way we can."


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Wednesday, 15 October 2008

Marketers Cut Back on Digital Media (WSJ)


Financial woes likely will derail the growth of a slew of advertising technologies that until recently were being hailed as the next big thing.
In recent years, marketers have set aside a portion of their ad budgets to experiment with digital technologies such as Web video, mobile phones, gaming and virtual worlds. But with broader economic turmoil reaching Madison Avenue, these "experimental" budgets are among the first to hit the cutting-room floor.



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Tuesday, 14 October 2008

Ad Pullback Doesn't Spare National TV (WSJ)

WSJ.com

OCTOBER 13, 2008


Economic anxiety may be seeping into some of the more insulated parts of the media world, including national advertising on U.S. cable- and broadcast-television networks.
In a bad sign for the media sector's third-quarter earnings, both Viacom Inc. and CBS Corp. cut their 2008 profit forecasts Friday, citing weakness in ad sales and the slowing economy.
The disclosures come as ad executives are seeing more cuts in already-soft ad spending, as a result of the upheaval in global financial markets. "We see reductions coming from all sectors," said Maurice Levy, chief executive of Publicis Groupe SA, one of the world's ...


I'd like to give you more of this but the WSJ has a .....paid content model.
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Monday, 13 October 2008

The Sucking Sound of Ad Dollars Disappearing (Businessweek)

Businessweek ran this piece just 5 days ago. I think it would need a rewrite today.






Media Centric October 9, 2008, 5:00PM EST
The Sucking Sound of Ad Dollars Disappearing
Newspapers and magazines have already been hit, and hard. Even network TV and luxury advertisers may not escape this recession
by
Jon Fine
It has been a lousy few years for much of the media, and 2008 has offered no respite. But to quote the hideous '70s band Bachman Turner Overdrive, b-b-b-baby, you just ain't see n-n-nothing yet.
Because on top of the wrenching change affecting essentially every non- online media, here comes a very scary-looking economic downturn.
Think of the recession, says Barclays (
BCS) analyst Anthony DiClemente, "as a vine growing up a wall. Except instead of a healthy vine, like at Wrigley [Field], it's like—'feed me, Seymour'—from The Little Shop of Horrors."
Forgive the surfeit of pop-culture jokes. I'm only trying to inject levity into an extremely grim picture. According to ad tracker TNS Media Intelligence, which provided all such figures for this column, automotive and financial services were the No. 1 and No. 3 U.S. ad categories last year. We all know what happened to the latter in recent months. In 2007, Merrill Lynch (
MER), Lehman Brothers (LEH), Bear Stearns (BSC), and Washington Mutual (WM) spent $213.1 million on advertising. Even if those companies' new owners spend something to reassure old customers, you're likely looking at a nine-figure sum sucked out of the ad marketplace by those guys alone. And when major carmakers report sales drops of 30%, boffo ad buys do not follow. Ford Motor's (F) ad spending was down over 31% for the first half of this year. Car sales' slide has accelerated since. In case you're wondering, the No. 2 ad category was retail, which is now under severe pressure as consumers spend less.
The consequences of all this contraction are readily apparent when you talk to key media executives. Magazines sell ads long before they appear, and advertisers already are making noises about cutting back in the first half of 2009, says one senior executive in that industry. "Everyone says they are going to keep advertising in a downturn," says another executive, who has run major sales organizations in different media. "But not everyone actually does it. That's just the reality of having to report earnings and profits." And while the wealthiest consumer may remain relatively untouched, those who have recently traded up to high-end products may slam the brakes on such consumption, raising chances that luxury advertisers will be affected, too. Food looks more likely to stay stable. One mordant TV executive puts it this way: "The auto industry is out. And Campbell's Soup (
CPB) is in."
How the dollars flow—or rather don't flow—in any downturn can shape events in ways obscured until much later. As strange as it sounds today, the tech bust that started in 2000 meant that total dollars spent on online display advertising declined 21% between 2001 and 2002. And as strange as it sounds today, many established media organizations used that decline as a rationale for deemphasizing the Web in favor of their traditional businesses—and underinvestment allowed all manner of Web-only startups to outflank them in the one medium that's still growing. While online display ads will still be up in '09, says BMO Capital Markets analyst Leland Westerfield, that growth rate will likely slow. Look for search advertising to hold up, so Google should be hurt the least.
Elsewhere, Barclay's DiClemente suggests, the slowdown's effects will move up a media ladder of sorts, starting with newspapers, magazines, radio, local TV, and then hitting broadcast and—possibly—cable TV. There's a "high probability," he says, that the "advertising malaise spreads to network TV"—the one long-running medium that's held steadiest as others have fallen off.
DiClemente is forecasting a 5.5% pullback in ad spending next year, with only Web and cable TV posting ad upticks. It may be hard to conjure a scenario worse than today's, given what radio, local TV, and newspapers are currently experiencing. This has been a year in which many unthinkable things have happened—newspaper executives, for instance, mulling which days of the week they won't publish. But the coming downturn means that what once was unthinkable ... well, you better start thinking it.
Fine is BusinessWeek's MediaCentric columnist and Fine On Media blogger .


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Sunday, 12 October 2008

In a recession/depression who does better? Internet advertising, print advertising or sponsorship?


Good question. Certainly, in the last recession display advertising overall went badly downhill, but the key point here is that when the economy rebounded, print display advertising did not in the same quantity as it had done before. Media buyers, looking to maintain brand visibility on lower budgets migrated heavily to the Internet. If the same thing happens again this time, newspapers are in even greater trouble. It's not the 2009 advertising budget the NYT needs to worry about (well, they do, but you'll see my point), it's the budgets post-recession/depression.
Another problem, and this is very specific to the IHT, is that in a recession advertising budgets contract (or in 2009 perhaps implode) so media buyers go the bottom of their scheduled buys (by bottom I mean the marginal add-on spends that in flush times they can afford) and cut them.
And the IHT, because of its poor performance on research (which Goldmark - see previous post - tried to fix but then gave up on as cost-cutting became his way to serve his masters), is one of those marginal, add-on spends.

Some excellent IHT material regarding sponsorship to reflect on in the two IHT articles posted below.
The first article is interesting in that Richard Scudamore, the English Premier League's cheif, manages to talk about revenue and over-leveraged debt without mentioning the words 'sponsorship revenue'. As if the clubs problems were consumer confidence (buying tickets to games) and high salaries.

He is presumably aware that West Ham's sponsor, Excel, went bankrupt?
********************


English Premier League chief says game is sustainable

LONDON: English Premier League chief executive Richard Scudamore said Thursday the structure of the game is sustainable despite the global financial crisis.

"People need to be realistic. We are entering interesting financial times. But football is very sustainable. Club names are very sustainable, they don't disappear. Revenues are very sustainable," he told Sky Sports News.

"We are not complacent, I am not saying we won't at some time feel the wind of the consumer crunch, but generally we are not in such a bad condition."

FA Chairman David Triesman said Tuesday English football had amassed debts of about three billion pounds and a top club could fold in the current financial climate.

But Scudamore has moved to calm fears that a leading club could go bankrupt and put the debt situation into perspective.

"Debt is neither good or bad, it is inevitable," he said. "It depends on the value of the asset the debt is against, and some of our clubs are hugely valuable assets, certainly the biggest clubs."

It is also a product of whether you can service the debt. And that is a debate that goes on.

"I'm not saying we don't have concerns, but it is also dangerous to be alarmist in the current financial conditions."

We have always worried. Football has always spent a little bit more than it has earned."

However, Scudamore ruled out a salary cap in the Premier League although he said it had been debated for some time.

"We have discussed it on and off for 10 years but we don't believe that, with the range of clubs we have, you can come up with a meaningful salary cap," he added.

"There are only two ways of doing it. A percentage of turnover -- where the likes of Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea would have a huge potential wage bill."

Or to put a fixed amount in, what would you fix it at?"
http://www.iht.com/articles/reuters/2008/10/10/sports/OUKSP-UK-SOCCER-ENGLAND-SCUDAMORE.php

******************
In hard times, who's in the mood for Volvo's high seas adventure?

We know they are resilient. How could they not be as they prepare to leave Saturday from Alicante, Spain, for the Volvo Ocean Race, a grueling round-the-world event that will take them to five continents and eventually to the finish line in St. Petersburg, Russia, in late June?We know they are intrepid. How could they not be if they choose to take part in a 35-year-old race that remains one of sailing's supreme tests as crews push their boats to the breaking point or beyond with wind shrieking and waves breaking across their decks?But the real question, with all the danger on shore and on Wall Street these days, is whether anybody in the all-too-real world is much in the mood to keep close track of sailors courting danger for the sake of a mere sporting event.One suspects not.

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Friday, 10 October 2008

"Incredibly, deep new cutbacks at L.A. Times" (LAObserved)

I had two conversations this week with two senior newspaper editors, both extremely secure in their jobs and positions, or so they told me. All this while all hell is breaking loose and they are writing daily stories about layoffs, Wall Street to Main Street, the 1930s and I don't know what.

It's as if they think they live in a bubble where a complete massacre of the 2009 Advertising Budget as a result of already bad predictions, exacerbated by the end of Act I of the Financial Meltdown, is not going to impact their jobs, their newsroom, their sacred ground.


Wrong.


Markets in free fall Monday and Tuesday and on Monday this story breaks out of LA.

Incredibly, deep new cutbacks at L.A. Times (see below for full text)

It's written as if it's some kind of big shocking surprise!!

No! Why don't journalists get it? They report a global recession but don't seem to think it will impact their own operating newsroom budgets.

What the in the name of whatever expletive or deity your wish to insert is so fucking incredible about this?





Incredibly, deep new cutbacks at L.A. Times

This is a breaking situation this afternoon. Editors met over the weekend to get the word and to refine their lists. Newsroom staffers are being told today individually and in department meetings that as many as 75 editorial positions are being cut through voluntary departures and layoffs. Some staffers were approached last week about volunteering, "enticed" with the threat that this will be the absolute final time that editorial employees will receive two weeks severance pay for each year of service when they leave. When new publisher Eddy Hartenstein took over in August, right after the last round of deep cuts, he was asked repeatedly about the prospect of new layoffs, and according to a first-hand report I passed along then:


The question of more layoffs was posed in half a dozen different ways and he said he hadn't been given a target number for the staff, that Sam Zell told him to run the place, etc., etc. He did say (as did Mark Willes and Sam Zell) that we can't cut our way to prosperity.


I've emailed Hartenstein and Times spokeswoman Nancy Sullivan some questions about what has changed since August and the extent of this round of cutbacks. My sources say the newsroom staffing level is headed to about 650, but I don't know if that includes the decimation of the Washington bureau expected by many there after the November election. Associate Editor for features Leo Wolinsky is holding a meeting with his staff shortly amid strong rumors that he is leaving. Stay tuned.
* Update: Wolinsky confirmed to his people that he's out, citing staff reorganization. Editor Russ Stanton has announced a 5 pm staff meeting. Wolinsky, you'll remember,
moved over into the features job during the March buyout wave after years as the page one editor under a few different titles.
2:53 PM Monday, October 6 2008
http://www.laobserved.com/archive/2008/10/incredibly_deep_new_cutba.php



Kevin Roderick, who wrote this piece, and perhaps the headline, needs to re-define his sense of the incredible.




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Friday, 19 September 2008

New York Times shares jump on August report (MarketWatch)


New York Times shares jump on August report
By
David B. Wilkerson, MarketWatch
Last update: 5:37 p.m. EDT Sept. 18, 2008
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - New York Times Co. shares rose 12% Thursday after the company reported August revenue results at its newspapers that reflected an improvement in online ad growth after a particularly tepid July, along with better results at the long-beleaguered Boston Globe.
NYT rose $1.63 to close at $15.25.
The media company said online ad revenue rose 7.9% in August, mostly due to growth in display advertising. Online help-wanted ad sales, a sore spot in July, remained a problem, especially in the later part of August. In July, online ad revenue rose just 0.9%, far worse than analysts had been expecting.
The digital growth still lags New York Times' typical performance. In June, the newspapers saw online revenue rise 21.5% over June 2007. Online ad revenue grew 14.2% in May, 25.6% in April, and 14.8% in March.
Total digital revenue rose 6%, with online ad revenue increasing 10.9%. Both figures are sharply up from July, when digital revenue rose 2.6%, with online-ad revenue up 5.5%.
Digital businesses accounted for 12.7% of total revenues in August, compared with 11% in August 2007.
There were also some signs of improvement at the company's New England Media Group, which includes the Boston Globe, Boston.com and the Worcester Telegram & Gazette. Ad revenue fell 16.4% after dropping 24.5% in July.
There have been persistent calls from Wall Street observers for a sale of the Globe, but New York Times has maintained that the newspaper remains an important outlet for New England advertisers.
Overall, weakness in print advertising continued unabated in August, leading ad revenue to plunge 15.9%.
Newspapers have been in dire straits over the last three years as a shift to online consumption of news and information has left publishers scrambling to deal with rapidly declining ad sales at their print editions.
The weakened U.S. economy, stifled by the subprime mortgage crisis, has dealt a punishing blow to classified revenues, particularly in the areas of real estate, help-wanted and automotive. Classified revenue has historically been the main source of income for newspapers.
At the New York Times Media Group, including the flagship newspaper, ad revenue fell 15.1%, hampered by weakness in the studio entertainment, transportation, hotel and national automotive categories.
The regional media group, including papers in midsize markets such as Wilmington, N.C., and Santa Rosa, Calif., saw ad revenue decline 17.5%.
At the group that includes About.com, the company's online-information portal, revenue climbed 16.1 % on increased cost-per-click and display advertising.
Other newspaper companies advanced Thursday. David B. Wilkerson is a reporter for MarketWatch in Chicago.

Wednesday, 17 September 2008

City Founder: In New Economy, Focus on 'CP-Relevant Customer' Not CPM (Media Bistro)

The nearest I get to a foodie magazine is the cafe conversation on a Thursday morning at my local market, so I have never heard of 'foodie fixture' magazine City and its founder John McDonald.

However, here is a quote, courtesy of Media Bistro who know such things, from John McDonald.

We caught up with McDonald and asked him how it's possible to engender loyalty among advertisers when the dollars they have to spend start shrinking.

"You're not dealing with CPM, you're dealing with more like a 'CP-relevant customer.' You want to really, really connect the dots between those brands, between key, key people who you can define who they are. If you can own that community, those people are always going to be really, really important, but when you have a lot of that, that's diluted down I think it would be tricky."

A few year back, IHT research director Brain (sic) Shields tried to show, through a research project called A.I.M that IHT readers might be less in number but they were worth more because of how attentively they read the IHT.

The comment above is an evolution of that argument, and although what follows from McDonald in his interview with Media Bistro is less relevant to the IHT (save perhaps a desire by some to chase the luxury market, and certainly the need to be more aggressive about being relevant), I like the term CP-relevant customer.

So if you're an IHT ad sales person going out to bat this morning, take that one with you.

"Our business is so small that I don't think I have a really relevant point of view. We're not in that game — if I was Details or I was a big book — you have to be really, really competitive."

So are you above it because you peddle a more luxury product?

"In a weird way, we're below it [because of our small size] which sneaks us in. You're not dealing with really big out of pocket expenses. When you're talking about anything in that niche world where you're marketing solutions are in $10-15,000 per page scenario, it's a little bit different.
At the same time, the truth is that if you're not really vital to [the advertiser's] plan, then you can also be the first to go. ... You have to be more aggressive about being relevant."

http://www.mediabistro.com/fishbowlny/media_events/city_founder_in_new_economy_focus_on_cprelevant_customer_not_cpm_94636.asp

One thing I think the NYT is NOT faced with is their need to persuade advertisers they are relevant. How relevant now, for this or that sector, during this or that market, perhaps. But not just the basic notion of being relevant.

I'd like to see a few more NYT ad sales people come and do placements at the IHT and learn that themselves, instead of hearing it all the time from the IHT sales guys.



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