NYT Company goes as low as $7.25; Harbinger Capital Partners does some housekeeping.

Not a great week.

The opening bell rung Monday at $9.25, so if you thought that was a good buy under $10 you lost 22% of you investment by the weekend. Hope you didn't.

NYT Company stock traded at an all-time low of $7.25 on Friday and closed out the week a cent above it's previous low of $7.33.

At $7.34 that represents a drop of nearly 47% in the last 3 months, -58% YTD, -61% in a year, -74% in 3 years and -84% over 5 years. More than that you really don't want to know.

Feb. 26th, 2004, it closed at $48.60 at a volume of nearly 3.5 million shares traded. Looking at recent volumes, who knows what's going on.

Meanwhile Friday, a Form 4 regarding The New York Times Company was filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission concerning 10% Class A Common Stock owners Harbinger Capital, moving some 40 million shares from its Special Situations Fund into another of its vehicles last Wednesday. This they did at $8.38. They also did some derivative stuff on nearly 400,000 shares that maybe made them some bucks, so someone, at least is making money.

You've gotta ask yourself if some naked short selling on NYT stock isn't the way forward. But remember:

Ring-a-ring o'roses,

A pocket full of posies,

A-tishoo! A-tishoo!

We all fall down.

New York Times Co
(NYT:NYQ) NYT on other Exchanges
7.34 USD Last
-0.62 -7.79% Change
2.4M Above Average Volume

Data as of November 14, 2008 16:05 exchange time. Market data is delayed by at least 20 minutes.
Today's Open
7.82 USD
Previous Close
7.96 USD
Today's High
8.06 USD
Today's Low
7.25 USD
Today's Volume
2.4M
Avg Volume (10 day)
1.3M

READ AN ALTERNATIVE IHT DAILY NARRATIVE AT
A PLACE IN THE AUVERGNE

LOOKING FOR A CHRISTMAS BOOK GIFT TO BUY?
"Books about cosmopolitan urbanites discovering the joys of country life are two a penny, but this one is worth a second glance. Walthew's vivid description of the moral stress induced by his job as a high-flying executive with the International Herald Tribune newspaper is worth the cover price alone…. Highly recommended." The Oxford Times

Amazon.co.uk

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Place-My-Country-Search-Rural/dp/0753823888/ref=pd_sbs_b_title_14

'I read A Place in My Country with absolute unalloyed delight. A glorious book.'
Jeremy Irons (actor)

‘Ian Walthew was a newspaper executive with a career that took him round the world, who one day did a mad thing. He saw a for-sale sign on a cottage in the Cotswolds, bought it, resigned and moved in. For the first few weeks he just lay on the grass in a daze. Then he started talking to his neighbours and digging into the rich history of this beautiful part of England. Out of his inquiries grew this affecting and inspiring memoir.What sets it apart from others of its ilk is the author’s enviable immunity to cliché and his determination to love his homeland better than he used to. His elegiac account of relearning how to be an Englishman should be required reading for anyone who claims to know or love this country.’ Financial Times


Amazon.com
http://www.amazon.com/Place-My-Country-Search-Rural/dp/029785173X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1225089096&sr=8-1

For more reviews visit ianwalthew.com

Business trip to the IHT in Paris or friends and family coming to visit you? Fed up with hotels? Bring the family (sleeps 6) to superb Montmartre apartment - weekend nights free of charge if minimum of 3 work nights booked;. Cable TV; wifi, free phone calls in France (landlines); large DVD and book library; kids toys, books, travel cot and beds; two double bedrooms; all mod cons; half an hour to Neuilly and 12 mins walk from Eurostar. T&E valid invoices.

10% Discount for NYT employees; 15% Discount for IHT Employees

http://www.montmartreabbesses.com


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Opinion: Questioning the The New York Times business model? The NYT needs a lender to see the big picture.

That is according to Editors Weblog's simple summary of the brilliantly incisive (er?) analysis by Scholars and Rogues (full marks for spotting the obvious), and I couldn't agree more.

Problem is, for a lender to see the big picture, the NYT Company needs to present them a VERY BIG PICTURE, one full of game changing ideas and innovation, not just one that says the advertising revenue is going to crash out by the end of 2010 if we're lucky, and even then, we're still screwed.

Come on NYT: show us the picture and we'll show you the money.

Why in God's name should anyone bail out the NYT if either they are a) interested in making money (which is why I think they could be bailed by people who aren't) or b) typical investors/lenders who require something to invest in/lend to CALLED A NEW BUSINESS PLAN, because the current one is, well, crap.

It's really not that complicated: we all know advertising is tanking, that it will take till we're dead for online revenues to take up the strain and that newspaper demographics are trending into a slurry pit.

And we all know the banks are about to ask questions about the lending to which the NYT doesn't have answers without killing themselves and their staff and what essentially they are. So they just have to come up with a plan.

Easy to say isn't it?

Well, actually, yes it is. Because I and others have them. I'm not chucking them up here for free however.

It reminds me of Friedman's typically naive recent column imploring the international community to 'show Obama the money' (and troops and aid and diplomatic support etc).

As one astute IHT reader pointed out, first, on what basis should ANYONE show the US government ANY money?

Obama has to show US (that would be us, the world, not the U.S.A) the BIG PICTURE, his business plan for the world and America, just like the NYT has to show a lender some god-damn half-decent ideas about its future.

Snap to boys and girls and smell the coffee.

Opinion: Questioning the The New York Times business model?
Posted by Rosemary D'Amour on November 12, 2008 at 4:18 PM
For over 100 years, The New York Times has set the standard for print publications in the US and all over the world. In an article on Monday, Scholars and Rogues, a blog offering commentary and analysis on breaking news, said that the legacy could be close to its end, because the Times has "significant debt coming due, and insignificant cash on hand."Scholars and Rogues comments that the Times did not accept the Internet as an "effective colleague" to distribute news and information, regarding it as "ineffective." This has now proven "costly," as the numbers indicate.
Scholars and Rogues reports that while the Times' online readership remains high, "it's not translating into sufficient online advertising revenue." According to Henry Blodget of the Silicon Valley Insider, based on recent NYTCo. filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Times owes $453 million more than it has. The Times' business model, which has been applied by many publications, is "faltering." It faces the problem that every other newspaper in the United States faces - how to make online adverting pay off fast enough to keep up with costs. According to Scholars and Rogues, "Internet ad revenues, though increasing, will not produce sufficient revenue soon enough to stave off drastic, perhaps catastrophic, changes in the newspaper industry."So the question is, what can the NYT do to cut costs and remain afloat? Will cutting jobs be enough? Will they need to end print editions? An interesting point, "any change in the Times company's business model will influence the readership habits and information needs and wants of millions of people." Keeping this in mind, they will need to find a solution that both allows them to maintain their status and have the resources to provide quality news coverage.

Source: Scholars and Rogues

http://www.editorsweblog.org/newspaper/2008/11/us_dreary_outlook_for_the_new_york_times.php

P.S If you were on the ball today you could have had yourself some NYT Company action for as little as $7.33. Currently trading, as of about 20 minutes ago, at $7.57. That's nearly 46% down over 3 months.

$7 here we come and half the value of the world's largest economy's No. 1 newspaper site blown away in 3 months. Oh yeah, there's a future on the Internet for quality content providers. Just not much money.

This year is like watching the Berlin Wall coming down.

New York Times Co
(NYT:NYQ) NYT on other Exchanges
7.57 USD Last
-0.13 -1.69% Change
1.5M Above Average Volume

Data as of November 13, 2008 14:17 exchange time. Market data is delayed by at least 20 minutes

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LOOKING FOR A CHRISTMAS BOOK GIFT TO BUY?
"Books about cosmopolitan urbanites discovering the joys of country life are two a penny, but this one is worth a second glance. Walthew's vivid description of the moral stress induced by his job as a high-flying executive with the International Herald Tribune newspaper is worth the cover price alone…. Highly recommended." The Oxford Times

Amazon.co.uk

'I read A Place in My Country with absolute unalloyed delight. A glorious book.'
Jeremy Irons (actor)

‘Ian Walthew was a newspaper executive with a career that took him round the world, who one day did a mad thing. He saw a for-sale sign on a cottage in the Cotswolds, bought it, resigned and moved in. For the first few weeks he just lay on the grass in a daze. Then he started talking to his neighbours and digging into the rich history of this beautiful part of England. Out of his inquiries grew this affecting and inspiring memoir.What sets it apart from others of its ilk is the author’s enviable immunity to cliché and his determination to love his homeland better than he used to. His elegiac account of relearning how to be an Englishman should be required reading for anyone who claims to know or love this country.’ Financial Times

Amazon.com

For more reviews visit ianwalthew.com

Business trip to the IHT in Paris or friends and family coming to visit you? Fed up with hotels? Bring the family (sleeps 6) to superb Montmartre apartment - weekend nights free of charge if minimum of 3 work nights booked;. Cable TV; wifi, free phone calls in France (landlines); large DVD and book library; kids toys, books, travel cot and beds; two double bedrooms; all mod cons; half an hour to Neuilly and 12 mins walk from Eurostar. T&E valid invoices.

10% Discount for NYT employees; 15% Discount for IHT Employees



International Herald Tribune
IHT
New York Times
The NYT Company

New Low for New York Times Company, New Look for FT.com

Look at this for a new low. Your NYT Company shares, as of about 20 minutes ago were trading -32.4% down on the last three months. Time to buy?

New York Times Co
(NYT:NYQ) 8.95 USD Last
-0.37 -3.97% Change
240.0K Below Average Volume

Data as of November 10, 2008 12:22 exchange time. Market data is delayed by at least 20 minutes.
Today's Open
9.44 USD
Previous Close
9.32 USD
Today's High
9.44 USD
Today's Low
8.92 USD
Today's Volume
240.0K
Avg Volume (10 day)
1.3M

Meanwhile I received this from FT.com

Worth checking out as www.iht.com works on its planned Q1 '09 move to www.nytimes.com.

Usual talk of community and blogs.

Why has it taken this damn long for papers like this to get with it? What is it with them?

Dear FT.com reader,

Here's a sneak preview of our new-look homepage, which launches this week. We're aiming for a more sophisticated look and feel that is consistent with the Financial Times brand - a clean and uncluttered executive briefing on the world of global business.

This is the first step in a series of design changes and functional improvements that will be rolled out across the rest of the site as they become available. These include:

• expanded coverage of important subjects such as macroeconomics,
  energy and technology


• better integration between market data and news, to give context
  to market movements


• more opportunities for users to become part of the Financial Times
  community by contributing to our discussion forums and blogs
  
  Of course, many of the things we're working on we hope you'll hardly notice at all. Planned improvements to the behind-the-scenes nuts and bolts of our publishing system will make the site quicker and easier to use. Please bear with us while we get there.
  
  
  For a preview of the new-look homepage and to give your feedback, please visit here.
  
  We hope you approve and we appreciate your views.
  
  Sincerely
  
  
  Lionel Barber
  Editor, Financial Times

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LOOKING FOR A CHRISTMAS BOOK GIFT TO BUY?
"Books about cosmopolitan urbanites discovering the joys of country life are two a penny, but this one is worth a second glance. Walthew's vivid description of the moral stress induced by his job as a high-flying executive with the International Herald Tribune newspaper is worth the cover price alone…. Highly recommended." The Oxford Times

Amazon.co.uk

'I read A Place in My Country with absolute unalloyed delight. A glorious book.'
Jeremy Irons, Actor and IHT Reader.


Amazon.com

For more reviews visit ianwalthew.com

Business trip to the IHT in Paris or friends and family coming to visit you? Fed up with hotels? Bring the family (sleeps 6) to superb Montmartre apartment - weekend nights free of charge if minimum of 3 work nights booked;. Cable TV; wifi, free phone calls in France (landlines); large DVD and book library; kids toys, books, travel cot and beds; two double bedrooms; all mod cons; half an hour to Neuilly and 12 mins walk from Eurostar. T&E valid invoices.

10% Discount for NYT employees; 15% Discount for IHT Employees




International Herald Tribune
IHT
New York Times
The NYT Company

NYT Company Stock Price

New York Times Co
(NYT:NYQ) NYT on other Exchanges
9.93 USD Last
+0.21 +2.16% Change
Data as of October 30, 2008 00:00 exchange time. Market data is delayed by at least 20 minutes

READ AN ALTERNATIVE IHT DAILY NARRATIVE AT
A PLACE IN THE AUVERGNE

LOOKING FOR A CHRISTMAS BOOK GIFT TO BUY?
"Books about cosmopolitan urbanites discovering the joys of country life are two a penny, but this one is worth a second glance. Walthew's vivid description of the moral stress induced by his job as a high-flying executive with the International Herald Tribune newspaper is worth the cover price alone…. Highly recommended." The Oxford Times

Amazon.co.uk

Amazon.com
For more reviews visit ianwalthew.com

Business trip to the IHT in Paris or friends and family coming to visit you? Fed up with hotels? Bring the family (sleeps 6) to superb Montmartre apartment - weekend nights free of charge if minimum of 3 work nights booked; Cable TV; wifi, free phone calls in France (landlines); large DVD and book library; kids toys, books, travel cot and beds; two double bedrooms; all mod cons; half an hour to Neuilly and 12 mins walk from Eurostar. T&E valid invoices.

10% Discount for NYT employees; 15% Discount for IHT Employees

International Herald Tribune
IHT
New York Times
The NYT Company

NYT Company Stock Price

The markets seem to agree with those Q3 results - in line with analysts' expectations.

But I think they are factoring in a sharp drop in the dividend ($25 million alone to family members with $1.2 billion of debt, so the question is, will the family stand firm on this and not do a Bancroft when someone comes tapping on the door).



Name
Last price
1-day$ change
1-day% change
30-day% change
Shares
Totalvalue

New York Times Company NYT: NYSE
$10.70
$0.02
+0.19%
–25.90%

News Corporation NWS.A: NYSE
$9.00
$0.54
+6.38%
–30.02%

Pearson PLC. PSO: NYSE
$9.67
$0.32
+3.42%
–11.53%

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The Newspaper Industry's Latest Challenges (Seeking Alpha.com)

October 23, 2008 about stocks: GCI / MNI / NYT / WPO
It seems like every week we hear more news heralding the newspaper industry's struggle and decline. There's no question the credit crunch and its various effects -- from making credit tight to hurting the advertising industry -- is making an already suffering business even worse.
Now a handful of prominent newspapers around the country announced they're leaving the Associated Press organization to trim costs. The Tribune Company, one of the nation's largest newspaper chains, the Columbus Dispatch and others are giving the A.P. two years notice. They may change their mind, or this could be a threat to get the A.P. to lower its costs, but contractually they need to give the two years notice so these papers are setting themselves up to cut up to hundreds of thousands of dollars from annual budgets, also leaving them with much less, if any, international coverage.
Meanwhile the Tribune Company plans to borrow $250 million from an existing credit facility. It seems safe to say that the newspaper publisher that owns the Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune has been struggling-- most recently struggling to pay down billions of dollars in debt taken on when Sam Zell took the company private last year. When Zell led the privatization of Tribune, many on Wall Street wondered if Zell, known for buying up distressed assets, knew something the rest of the investing community didn't. Now it appears he doesn't.
The statistics bear out all this bad news. Goldman Sachs' analyst Peter Appert tells me that newspapers are suffering their worst stint since the great depression. Newspaper stocks are on the whole down over 60 percent year to date, about twice the drop of the S&P. Newspaper advertising revenue has fallen about 25 percent over the last two years, in a bit of a perfect storm. There are secular pressures, as newspaper ads lose ground to the more flexible and measurable Internet ad format. And now there's this industry-wide ad downturn. On top of all that, newsprint costs are expected to rise between 20 and 30 percent over the next several quarters. Ouch.
Brand names like the New York Times (NYT) and Washington Post Company (WPO) will retain their value, but Wall Street analysts are telling me they expect those companies as well as the likes of Gannett (GCI) and McClatchy (MNI) to restructure -- slim down with a greater emphasis on their websites. Analysts for the most part recommend investors wait on the sidelines until these stocks start to turn around, but the one stock I'm hearing more positive buzz about is Gannett because it's trading at a historically low multiple and it has a healthy dividend yield (now around 10 percent). That said, this isn't the last of the industry's bad news.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/101465-the-newspaper-industry-s-latest-challenges

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Only $9 to go for NYT Company to join GateHouse Media (Fishbowl)

Wednesday, Oct 22
NYSE Says Goodbye to GateHouse Media
GateHouse Media, which publishes 97 daily newspapers and 400 other publications, will be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange before the market opens on Friday.
For more than a year, the per share price has hovered below the $1.05 minimum required by the exchange, trading at less than $0.17/share today. It traded for $20/share when the stock debuted on the market in October, 2006.
GateHouse attempted to keep its ticker symbol alive by submitting a business plan to NYSE last month, but the exchange decided "the 'abnormally low' price of the stock makes it appropriate" to suspend trading.

CORRECTION

26th October, 2008

Thanks to an alert Think! reader, I am told that the the above piece from FishbowlNY is incorrect.

Apparently, GateHouse Media did not go below $1.05 until July of this year.

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NYT Stock Prices - creeping down to $10.00

If the share price falls below $10.00 is it time to start buying NYT stock? I have my views, but I'm not a stock picking site.



Name
Last price
1-day$ change
1-day% change
30-day% change
Shares
Totalvalue


New York Times Company NYT: NYSE
$10.68
–$1.20
–10.10%
–26.34%

News Corporation NWS.A: NYSE
$8.46
–$0.75
–8.14%
–34.57%

Pearson PLC. PSO: NYSE
$9.35
–$0.52
–5.27%
–17.91%

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NYT Stock Prices

Here's the latest (last post on this here):


Name
Last price
1-day$ change
1-day% change
30-day% change
Shares
Totalvalue

New York Times Company NYT: NYSE
$11.88
–$1.20
–9.17%
–21.32%

News Corporation NWS.A: NYSE
$9.21
–$0.46
–4.76%
–32.92%

Pearson PLC. PSO: NYSE
$9.87
–$0.30
–2.95%
–15.57%

Just for the record, here's this year's story, in advance of tomorrows' Third-Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference Call. This will be at 11 a.m. (NY time) and will be webcast. To access the call, dial (877) 741-4245 (in the U.S.) and (719) 325-4830 (international callers). Participants should dial into the conference call approximately 10 minutes before the start time. Online listeners can link to the live webcast here.

New York Times Company NYT: NYSE
52 Week High
$21.14
52 Week Low
$11.22

Oh happy US$45 days and oh, how the names have changed of the analysts and their companies that follow NYT Company.

Barclays Capital
Craig Huber

Benchmark Company
Edward Atorino

Deutsche Bank Securities
David Clark

Goldman Sachs
Peter Appert

J.P. Morgan
Alexia Quadrani

Wachovia Securities
John Janedis

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NYT Stock Prices

Name
Last price
1-day$ change
1-day% change
30-day% change
Shares
Totalvalue

New York Times Company NYT: NYSE
$13.08
$0.57
+4.56%
–13.38%

News Corporation NWS.A: NYSE
$9.67
$0.59
+6.50%
–29.57%

Pearson PLC. PSO: NYSE
$10.17
$0.71
+7.51%
–13.00%

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Media stocks yesterday.

The IHT's three main competitors today are the WSJ and the FT.

As a result, and given the extraordinary market conditions, I am going to keep you posted on performances.

Firstly, current trading prices on NYSE as of time of blog post or a few mins. before.

Data coming from My Portfolio on http://www.nytimes.com/




Name
Last price
1-day$ change
1-day% change
30-day% change
Shares
Total value

New York Times Company NYT: NYSE
$12.53
$0.00
0.00%
–10.44%


News Corporation NWS.A: NYSE
$9.34
$0.00
0.00%
–25.04%

Pearson PLC. PSO: NYSE
$9.72
$0.00
0.00%
–14.41%





Now Analysts Recommendations:


Name
Consensus recommendation
EPS estimate (2009)
Target price
Long-termgrowth rate

New York Times Company NYT: NYSE
Hold
$0.79
$9.67
+4.0%


News Corporation NWS.A: NYSE
Outperform
$1.22
$17.00
+11.0%


Pearson PLC. PSO: NYSE
Outperform
$0.92
$14.05
+10.0%

Cheers.

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Pearson shares rise (IHT)

It's important to remember that Pearson's flagship FT, and one of the IHT's main competitors, along with the WSJ, represents a very small part of Pearson's total revenue. On that note:

Sales were up 11 percent at the FT Group and advertising revenues at FT Publishing were 1 percent ahead of 2007.

That all said, it has outperformed European media stocks by 9% over the last 15 months, and rose it tough market conditions no less than 4.3 percent to 583.5 pence yesterday. But remember the head days of £15 plus prices?

Reuters
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
By Dan Lalor and Kate Holton
Publishing group Pearson said its adjusted 2008 earnings per share should be towards the top end of current market estimates if the dollar maintains gains versus sterling.
The owner of The Financial Times also said on Wednesday it was trading in line with expectations, with sales up 8 percent and operating profit up 11 percent at constant exchange rates in the nine months to end-September.
Sales were up 3 percent on an underlying basis.
The news sent shares in the Penguin books owner up 4.3 percent to 583.5 pence in early trading against an otherwise lower market, as analysts welcomed the "reassuring" statement.
"We're naturally cautious about the global economic conditions, but we have good trading momentum, innovative products, resilient businesses and a strong balance sheet," Pearson chief executive Marjorie Scardino said in a statement.
"We are trading in line with our expectations and we remain on track to make further progress on our financial goals in 2008," the group said.
Analysts' median forecast is for an adjusted 2008 EPS of 49.25 pence from Pearson, based on a range from 45.65 to 52.8 pence, according to Reuters Estimates.
Pearson said its education business was trading in line with expectations, with sales up 10 percent and margin guidance unchanged.
It expects 2008 margins to be similar to the 2007 levels, even after "significant expensed integrations costs" and it expects margin improvements in 2009 and beyond.
Sales were up 11 percent in the North American education division and it expects full-year sales to grow by around 10 percent, or by 2 to 4 percent on an underlying basis.
Sales were up 11 percent at the FT Group and advertising revenues at FT Publishing were 1 percent ahead of 2007. Sales were up 3 percent at Penguin and it expects a good performance in the important fourth-quarter Christmas selling period.
Analysts mostly welcomed the statement as reassuring but RBS Media did note that the education division and Penguin had slowed in the third quarter compared to the first half.
"While the 9 month organic growth of 3 percent is respectable, and the company reiterated guidance for low single digit revenue growth for the full-year, we note that Education slowed meaningfully in Q3 (H1 growth of 4 percent vs 9 month growth of 1 percent), as did Penguin (H1 organic growth of 9 percent vs 9 month growth of 4 percent).
"Pearson's business is late cycle, we expect Pearson's organic growth to slow to 1 percent in 2009 as state funding for education slows," they said.
Pearson shares, which have outperformed other leading European media stocks by 9 percent over the past 12 months, closed at 559.5 pence on Tuesday to value the business at 4.37 billion pounds.
(Reporting by Dan Lalor and Kate Holton; Editing by Hans Peters)

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New York Times Company stock - buy, sell, hold?

If your portfolio has a healthy cash balance (and as an IHT reader who has been on the ball and following A Place in the Auvergne since the beginning of 2008, it should have) then these are interesting times for stock transactions.

I'm not going to get into recommendations on NYT Company Stock (for now at least) but I will post on it a little more regularly. Starting with just reminding readers of this blog of the daily price. Remember, it wasn't so long ago that this stock traded at US$45.

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How Are Media Stocks Doing? (Last Friday from Fishbowl)

This from Fishbowl last Friday - more drip feed, anti-MSM, print is dead Chinese water torture on the world's young and impressionable media buyers and planners,

NYT stock is currently at, let me see......

For Q1 and Q2 2008 the total revenues for the New York Times Media Group, which includes the IHT, were down 2.8% and 4.4% respectively versus 2007.

We sporadically examine media stocks because it's depressing but gives us an excuse to run the fun Monopoly guy image.
So, with the financial crisis upon us and all, how are they doing? Not well, according to our quick and totally incomplete survey.
News Corp: -0.56

Time Warner: -0.92

Gannett Co., Inc: -0.52

McClatchy Newspapers Inc: -0.18(Bright spot!)

The New York Times: -0.04
The list goes on. Maybe there's a TV in the bar we can watch.

(Also, over at TechCrunch, Erick Schonfeld writes how many Google employees are now holding worthless stock in the company.)

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