Showing posts with label Stock price. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock price. Show all posts

Wednesday, 19 November 2008

The future of newspapers in a world of Capitalism 2.0

I've blogged a lot about a publicly endowed public-to-private move by the NYT Company in order to save itself.

I just want to clarify something for a Think! reader who wrote to me about this.

Yes, one option is to go the non-profit endowment route.

But another, and one which is part of my thinking, is that pure endowment isn't the only play here.

Let's just consider for a moment that, after the recent financial meltdown, we're going to see new flora and fauna emerging, a bit like after a forest fire.

I think this is likely not just in the case of newspaper companies and their offerings, but also capitalism in general. It's what I call the birth of Capitalism 2.0. (I don't know if anyone else is using that term, but if so I haven't read about it.)

Capitalism 2.0 is a market place for profit-minded investors (yes, capitalists still want an ROI) within which different classes of investors emerge who are willing, for reasons of contributing to the broader base of social capital, to accept reduced, capped or fixed income returns on their investments.

In my scenario of 100 rich Americans/foundations/endowments/whoever stumping up, let's say, $10 million each to achieve this for the NYT Company, they would enable the NYT Company to survive in the short term and flourish in the long term (once the NYT Co. get with the programme of what is actually going on in the media world and what the market wants and come up with some new ideas). But a fully blown not for profit endowment is not what I have in mind.

What I have in mind is an investment class of managed profit expectations where investors are willing to accept, in return for a broader (can we say greater?) good, lower returns on their capital than they can achieve elsewhere.

Capitalism 2.0 will still leave plenty of investment classes for people who are driven purely by greed and profit, but in 25 years time, might we be asking each other at dinner parties whether we're into - to shorthand the idea - social capital class B investments or pure profit motive class A investments? Emerging social trends will determine which class of investment is called A and which class is called B.

This differential between investment classes can be applied to any company or sector you care to mention. Oil companies that are Investment B class or Investment A class for example, the former being one that caps its profit margins at a certain percentage, re-invests that money in alternative non-fossil energies and pays out, yes, a lower dividend.

Given the NYT families who own the voting stock are going to have to swallow considerably lower dividends for some years to come, even if (and it's an if) they survive, might they like to go for this model and at least claim some glory for developing the concept (after me that is)?

We're constantly told what terrifically socially minded and all round great people the family is (a bit like the Bancrofts, ho hum) so let's see them put their money where their mouth is. Sorry kids, some of you are going to have to get real jobs, but you've all got the nice Manhattan brown house/loft apartment/trust fund based on NYT dividends to date, so it's not all bad is it?

As for management and editorial staff, well, sorry too.

You're going to have to take a pay cut.

I would if I were you in this scenario because given the media meltdown, both re, media market B-side and editorial staffing cuts, there's plenty of members of the liberal media elite who would be more than willing and capable of working for a Capitalism 2.0 NYT Co. on a wage platform of, off the top of my head, at least 25% less than you're currently getting paid.

With the $10 million members of the liberal media elite poneying up to get the debt down by around a billion dollars, the company going public-to-private, the resulting drop in debt servicing fees and 25% off the biggest cost base without you losing your job, this could be one hell of an offer.

And we'll all get a chance to see just how liberal you and the Ochs-Sulzbergers really are. Which would be nice wouldn't it?


If you don't like the deal on the table you can always go and set up a blog, because boy, that's the future isn't it (not).

And let's not forget, that with NYT Company stock trading at as low as $6.90 yesterday, your performance related stock options aren't worth a bag of beans anyway, so no big loss on that front.

Naturally investor/employee participation is going to be a big part of the reward of being in Class B investments as an investor or employee, so we may need a few changes of management style. But judging by the mood music I'm hearing, no one would be worrying too much about that.

BTW: if something like this does happen at the NYT Co. I still want that place on the board. And given how much I've made out of the naked short selling of NYT Company stock in the last 24 months, I'm more than happy to put the first 10 mill on the table. Can't do fairer than that ;)

Today's article in the IHT about the Smithsonian (see below) is perhaps relevant in all this, but there are more thoughts beneath it about the future of newspapers in the world of Capitalism 2.0.


At meeting, Smithsonian practices new openness
By Robin Pogrebin
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
WASHINGTON: Fielding questions about its diminished endowment fund, the possibility of charging admission fees and the fate of its fabled yet shuttered Arts and Industries Building, the Smithsonian Institution held the first public board meeting in its 162-year history on Monday as part of its new commitment to openness and accountability. Sitting on the stage of a 565-seat auditorium at the institution's National Museum of Natural History, members of the governing body, or Board of Regents — including members of Congress — took questions from the audience present and online.
The two-hour meeting was a window on public concerns about the Smithsonian's shaky financial state and potentially endangered programs, rather than merely a forum for combative accusations after two tumultuous years in which the institution has been battered by mismanagement scandals. Museumgoers and Smithsonian staff members had the opportunity to ask whatever they wanted about the organization's operations and direction.
Although billed as an open board meeting, the session seemed more like a chance for the regents to hear from the public than for the public to observe the regents at work. Questions ranged from broad issues like the thrust of the Smithsonian's new strategic planning initiative, intended to draft a course of action for the institution's financial future and its programs, to whether a tram might be built at the National Zoo.
There were nonetheless more challenging moments.
"Why did you not all resign?" was the first question, submitted on a card by an audience member. It referred to the Board of Regents' decision to stay on after revelations about the lavish expense-account spending of Lawrence Small, the Smithsonian's former secretary, or chief executive, who resigned in March 2007.
Roger Sant, chairman of the Smithsonian's executive committee, replied that the regents had asked themselves, "Do we resign, or do we roll up our sleeves — and we chose the latter."
The question that drew one of the most emphatic responses from the regents concerned the viability of the Smithsonian's policy of free admission at all of its components, which include 19 museums and galleries, the zoo and 9 research centers. The Smithsonian draws 70 percent of its $1 billion annual budget from the federal government.
One written comment suggested that "the luxury of free admission must be a thing of the past." The audience booed.
Senator Christopher Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut and a Smithsonian regent, called the admission policy "one of the great hallmarks" of the institution.
Calling attention to the Smithsonian's unusual governance structure was the scheduled role of Chief Justice John Roberts Jr., who serves as the Smithsonian's chancellor and traditionally presides over board meetings. At the last minute the chief justice was unable to attend and Sant presided instead. "We've been trying to do some fixing," Sant said upon opening the meeting. "The board views this meeting as an opportunity to directly engage with all of you about the issues facing the Smithsonian."
Many questions were answered by G. Wayne Clough, the former president of the Georgia Institute of Technology, who took over in July as the Smithsonian's secretary.
He faces the task of restoring stability to an institution struggling with a $2.5 billion shortfall, crumbling buildings and a recent legacy of improprieties by leading Smithsonian executives. "We believe the Smithsonian is at a turning point," he said in his opening remarks. "The world is rapidly changing in so many ways."
Like other organizations, the Smithsonian has been seriously affected by the nation's economic downturn; the value of its endowment has dropped 21 percent since June. "Of course we can't predict the future," Clough said, "but we can prepare for it."
He said the Smithsonian had "to find ways to be more self-reliant." The institution raised $135.6 million last year, he said, an improvement on its goal of $115 million.
The developer and philanthropist Eli Broad, who serves as a regent, said the board had become more conservative about its investments.
The organization has also raised $400,000 toward the $1.3 million cost of its strategic planning effort, Clough said. But he said that fund-raising was not enough and that the institution needed to set about attracting a younger and more diverse work force and audience.
Clough said he had established a committee to ensure that executives at the institution — including regents, staff members and contractors — reflected the nation's ethnic diversity. "The Smithsonian is the treasure of America and it represents America," he said. "Therefore its Board of Regents should as well."
Several of the questions dealt with the Smithsonian's neo-Classical 1881 Arts and Industries Building, which has been closed for four years and is listed by the National Trust for Historic Preservation as one of the nation's most endangered places because of its state of disrepair.
Clough said that the cost of repairs had been estimated at about $75 million and that the Smithsonian would conclude a study on its future use in January. One member of the audience suggested setting aside part of the building as an information center for all the institutions on the National Mall.
The Board of Regents plans to hold open meetings at least once a year. The next one is expected in June. Sant said the board might adjust the format in the future.
"We don't have it exactly right," he said. "But at least we're trying to tinker with it."

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/18/arts/18smithsonian.php

If you think all of the above is a load of old bollocks then you'll be cheered by these remarks by Mr. Capitalism 1.0s recent remarks:

Murdoch upbeat about the future of newspapers
By ROHAN SULLIVAN – 2 days ago
SYDNEY, Australia (AP) — Global media magnate Rupert Murdoch says doomsayers who are predicting the Internet will kill off newspapers are "misguided cynics" who fail to grasp that the online world is potentially a huge new market of information-hungry consumers.
Newspaper companies in the United States and elsewhere are facing fundamental changes to their businesses as more people get their news from the Internet and other sources, and advertisers follow the market away from the paper-and-ink format.
Murdoch, the Australian-born chairman and chief executive of News Corp., said in a speech broadcast Sunday titled "The Future of Newspapers: Moving Beyond Dead Trees" that the Internet offered opportunities as well as challenges and that newspapers would always be around in some form or other.
"Too many journalists seem to take a perverse pleasure in ruminating on their pending demise," Murdoch said in a speech, recorded in the United States and relayed nationally by the Australian Broadcasting Corp. It was the latest in an annual ABC series of lectures by a prominent Australian.
"Unlike the doom and gloomers, I believe that newspapers will reach new heights" in the 21st century, Murdoch said.
Murdoch grew a small city newspaper he inherited in 1953 into one of the world's largest media conglomerates that now includes 20th Century Fox, Fox News Channel and Sky Broadcasting, Dow Jones & Co. and the online networking site MySpace.
He said people now were "hungrier for information that ever before" and that papers have an edge over bloggers and other newcomers because they are more trusted by readers.
"Readers want what they've always wanted: a source they can trust," Murdoch said. "That has always been the role of great newspapers in the past. And that role will make newspapers great in the future."
He said newspapers would have to evolve from the physical item to "news brands" that are delivered in a variety of ways and are flexible for readers.
"I like the look and feel of newsprint as much as anyone," he said. "But our real business isn't printing on dead trees. It's giving our readers great journalism and great judgment.
"It's true that in the coming decades, the printed versions of some newspapers will lose circulation. But if papers provide readers with news they can trust, we' ll see gains in circulation — on our Web pages, through our RSS feeds, in e-mails delivering customized news and advertising, to mobile phones," Murdoch said.
"In this coming century, the form of delivery may change, but the potential audience for our content will multiply many times over," he said.
Murdoch cited two of his most prestigious newspapers, The Times of London and The Wall Street Journal, as examples of how newspaper brands can win large online readerships.
But he stressed that even these papers must recognize that online customers will decide what news they want and how they receive it.
"To compete today, you can't offer the old one-size-fits-all approach to news," he said. "The challenge is to use a newspaper's brand while allowing readers to personalize the news for themselves and then deliver it in the ways that they want."
To capitalize on online opportunities, Murdoch said The Wall Street Journal was planning to offer three tiers of content online — free news, a subscriber-level service, and a third "premium service" of reader-customizable "high-end financial news and analysis."
Murdoch was scathing of journalists who predicted the death of newspapers as self-pitying and "misguided cynics who are too busy writing their own obituary to be excited by the opportunity."
"The newspaper, or a very close electronic cousin, will always be around," he said. "It may not be thrown on your front doorstep the way it is today. But the thud it makes as it lands will continue to echo around society and the world."

That's all great Rupert but your share price is hardly crash hot either is it?

On that cheery note, I am taking a break from Think! for at least a week, if not more. Knee operation in hospital and other more pressing matters to deal with. I may or may not be back.

Can I just conclude by telling those people who edit the simply dreadful T magazine that, as reported in their piece on Amsterdam in their recent travel edition, Amsterdam is NOT the capital of Holland; The Hague is the capital of The Netherlands. (I think we can sadly take it as a given that the headline writers weren't thinking from their desks in Manhattan about the various provinces in The Netherlands when they called that one.)

Finally.....CHRISTMAS COMPETITION

I'm running a prize competition for the Think! reader who most accurately predicts the NYT Company share price on 31 December, 2008. It's a good prize and I'll send it out in the first week of January, 2009, as well as announcing the winner (anonymous you may remain if you prefer but your entries to ihtreraders AT gmail.com please - if you want to claim the prize I will need your postal address at some point.)

And please, if you are a reader of this blog, and there seem to be lots of you, particularly in Paris, London, Hong Kong and NY according to my stats, and if you haven't yet voted on the three polls on this blog that close at the end of this year, please take a minute to do so.

By far the biggest readership, as judged by the polls, is IHT subscribers but I have data and ISP addresses which would seem to suggest otherwise.

Time to fess up and vote!






READ AN ALTERNATIVE IHT DAILY NARRATIVE AT
A PLACE IN THE AUVERGNE

LOOKING FOR A CHRISTMAS BOOK GIFT TO BUY?
"Books about cosmopolitan urbanites discovering the joys of country life are two a penny, but this one is worth a second glance. Walthew's vivid description of the moral stress induced by his job as a high-flying executive with the International Herald Tribune newspaper is worth the cover price alone…. Highly recommended."
The Oxford Times

Amazon.co.uk
A PLACE IN MY COUNTRY
by
Ian Walthew


'I read
A Place in My Country with absolute unalloyed delight. A glorious book.'
Jeremy Irons (actor)

‘Ian Walthew was a newspaper executive with a career that took him round the world, who one day did a mad thing. He saw a for-sale sign on a cottage in the Cotswolds, bought it, resigned and moved in. For the first few weeks he just lay on the grass in a daze. Then he started talking to his neighbours and digging into the rich history of this beautiful part of England. Out of his inquiries grew this affecting and inspiring memoir.What sets it apart from others of its ilk is the author’s enviable immunity to cliché and his determination to love his homeland better than he used to.
His elegiac account of relearning how to be an Englishman should be required reading for anyone who claims to know or love this country. Financial Times


Amazon.com
A PLACE IN MY COUNTRY
By
Ian Walthew


For more reviews visit
ianwalthew.com

Tuesday, 18 November 2008

Newsprint demand down but will there be Play on newsprint prices?

It just isn't getting any better is it?

September 07-September 08, U.S newsprint demand went down 13%, newsprint prices went up 13%. That's the real number to worry about for the IHT because my understanding is that IHT newsprint is bought off the back of the higher NYT newsprint purchases. But in Europe the price gets worse too. As does demand.


Newspapers face fresh printing pressures (FT)
By Robert Anderson in Stockholm and Christopher Mason in Ottawa
Published: November 16 2008 17:30 Last updated: November 16 2008 17:30
Newspapers, which are already bracing themselves for falling advertising sales as the global economy turns down, face more bad news next year as newsprint producers try to push through steep price increases.
European newsprint producers led by
Norske Skog, the world’s second-largest, are currently negotiating with customers to increase prices by up to 20 per cent.
They believe that recent capacity cuts have given them the market power to compensate for years of rising costs, flat prices and falling margins.
“We’ve been under quite a drastic margin squeeze for several years,” said Norske Skog’s spokesman. “We see a momentum now for increased prices.”
All of Europe’s big newsprint producers are currently lossmaking as demand continues to fall because of the switchover to internet publication, while wood, energy and transport costs have risen significantly.
European producers have responded this year by committing to cut some 1m tones of capacity – 6 per cent of the total, according to Norske Skog, double the 3 per cent fall in demand.
As cost pressures start to ease, this gives producers a shot at raising margins.
“In Europe we will see the biggest changes, as we’ve had constant overcapacity for several years,” Norske Skog says.
European producers are also benefiting from a fall in imported newsprint as North American producers turn back to their home markets.
North American producers have suffered even more from falling demand, as the switch to the internet has taken hold faster there, but they have also been quicker to consolidate and cut capacity. In the year to September North American newsprint prices soared 33 per cent while consumption continued its descent, falling nearly 13 per cent over the same period.
North American Newsprint producers AbitibiBowater, Catalyst Paper, and Tembec initially compensated for drops in domestic demand by exporting to western Europe, Latin America and Asia.
But the strengthening dollar and the steep rise in North American newsprint prices have swept away European price advantages.
In the first nine months of 2008, newsprint exports to western Europe fell 20.6 per cent from the same period last year, according to the Montreal-based Pulp and Paper Products Council. Exports to Latin America and Asia grew by 17 and 9.3 per cent respectively in the same period, reflecting producers’ efforts to seek out new growth markets.
Analysts remain doubtful, however, whether newsprint producers will be able to push through the price increases in full without more capacity cuts.
“If [North American] producers don’t come out and shut down more capacity, it looks like prices will peak at the end of this year,” said Rahul Gandhi, a New York-based paper analyst with CreditSights.
“The decline in demand though will not stop, so it’s not looking good for producers if they are unable to raise prices.”
“There is a possibility that [European] prices will go up but demand will also go down,” says Johnson Imode of Standard & Poor’s Equity Research in London. “Clients will be able to strike quite a hard bargain with newsprint manufacturers.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a2cac4b2-b400-11dd-8e35-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1


More housekeeping at the Harbinger (of doom) announced - what exactly is going on there I couldn't tell you - but equity swaps reported at around the $15.00 mark - and the NYT Company share price slips yet further.

I said $10 would be a tipping point, we got there shortly thereafter, and we have tipped. How that re-scheduling of borrowing is going I wouldn't like to say but this is beginning to look a lot like GM. Citibank cut another 24,000 jobs yesterday, taking it to 20% of its workforce, and short of the NYT doing something similar, I can't see a turn around anytime soon.

Even if 2010 (end thereof at best, I might add) sees us come out of the advertising recession, I fear that's too far off for the NYT. Advertisers by then may just have given up on print.

Yesterday, the NYT shuttered its award winning mag PLAY having said it would keep 4 issues in 2009, so there you go.

Talk was up about Play as recently as last October (as was talk of no layoffs) but according to an email to Fishbowl NY, from Play editor Mark Bryant, "The company needs to make some pretty considerable cuts going forward."

There's an understatement.

"It was on the schedule. It was in the budget," Bryant wrote when asked "why the magazine had been shuttered so soon after both he and the Times brass confirmed it would continue next year".

According to Bryant, Play wasn't losing money. "I'm am told that last year we more or less broke even, thanks largely to the Nielsen deal for the Olympic issue," he wrote. ('Nielsen bought out the entire issue. It was, according to Bryant, the "largest single day sale in the history of The New York Times".)

Et alors? More or less break even, even with the single day sale in the history of the NYT. Says it all.

Share price now: $7.10 on a day that hit a low yesterday of, yes, $7.

That's 47% down on three months, 61% down on 1 year. Not that anyone's counting or anything.

Anyone want to buy a GM SUV? But where's print's Toyota Prius? It's hard to find a media outlet, print or Internet, that isn't hacking staff off as fast as it can, and one can't help wondering when this option is put into Play at the NYT.

I still fancy a 'go-private' move - hard pressed to see an alternative; hope there are some rich people who couldn't live without their NYT.

The family could sell some voting stock to Harbinger/The Mexican Gunslinger to get that debt down, but what would be the implications of that? Very ugly.




New York Times Co
(NYT:NYQ)
NYT on other Exchanges
7.10 USD Last
-0.24 -3.27% Change
1.3M Below Average Volume

Data as of November 17, 2008 16:04 exchange time. Market data is delayed by at least 20 minutes

Saturday, 15 November 2008

NYT Company goes as low as $7.25; Harbinger Capital Partners does some housekeeping.

Not a great week.

The opening bell rung Monday at $9.25, so if you thought that was a good buy under $10 you lost 22% of you investment by the weekend. Hope you didn't.

NYT Company stock traded at an all-time low of $7.25 on Friday and closed out the week a cent above it's previous low of $7.33.

At $7.34 that represents a drop of nearly 47% in the last 3 months, -58% YTD, -61% in a year, -74% in 3 years and -84% over 5 years. More than that you really don't want to know.

Feb. 26th, 2004, it closed at $48.60 at a volume of nearly 3.5 million shares traded. Looking at recent volumes, who knows what's going on.

Meanwhile Friday, a Form 4 regarding The New York Times Company was filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission concerning 10% Class A Common Stock owners Harbinger Capital, moving some 40 million shares from its Special Situations Fund into another of its vehicles last Wednesday. This they did at $8.38. They also did some derivative stuff on nearly 400,000 shares that maybe made them some bucks, so someone, at least is making money.

You've gotta ask yourself if some naked short selling on NYT stock isn't the way forward. But remember:

Ring-a-ring o'roses,
A pocket full of posies,
A-tishoo! A-tishoo!
We all fall down.



New York Times Co
(NYT:NYQ)
NYT on other Exchanges
7.34 USD Last
-0.62 -7.79% Change
2.4M Above Average Volume

Data as of November 14, 2008 16:05 exchange time. Market data is delayed by at least 20 minutes.
Today's Open
7.82 USD
Previous Close
7.96 USD
Today's High
8.06 USD
Today's Low
7.25 USD
Today's Volume
2.4M
Avg Volume (10 day)
1.3M
READ AN ALTERNATIVE IHT DAILY NARRATIVE AT
A PLACE IN THE AUVERGNE

LOOKING FOR A CHRISTMAS BOOK GIFT TO BUY?
"Books about cosmopolitan urbanites discovering the joys of country life are two a penny, but this one is worth a second glance. Walthew's vivid description of the moral stress induced by his job as a high-flying executive with the International Herald Tribune newspaper is worth the cover price alone…. Highly recommended."
The Oxford Times

Amazon.co.uk

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Place-My-Country-Search-Rural/dp/0753823888/ref=pd_sbs_b_title_14

'I read
A Place in My Country with absolute unalloyed delight. A glorious book.'
Jeremy Irons (actor)

‘Ian Walthew was a newspaper executive with a career that took him round the world, who one day did a mad thing. He saw a for-sale sign on a cottage in the Cotswolds, bought it, resigned and moved in. For the first few weeks he just lay on the grass in a daze. Then he started talking to his neighbours and digging into the rich history of this beautiful part of England. Out of his inquiries grew this affecting and inspiring memoir.What sets it apart from others of its ilk is the author’s enviable immunity to cliché and his determination to love his homeland better than he used to.
His elegiac account of relearning how to be an Englishman should be required reading for anyone who claims to know or love this country. Financial Times


Amazon.com
http://www.amazon.com/Place-My-Country-Search-Rural/dp/029785173X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1225089096&sr=8-1

For more reviews visit
ianwalthew.com

Thursday, 13 November 2008

Opinion: Questioning the The New York Times business model? The NYT needs a lender to see the big picture.

That is according to Editors Weblog's simple summary of the brilliantly incisive (er?) analysis by Scholars and Rogues (full marks for spotting the obvious), and I couldn't agree more.

Problem is, for a lender to see the big picture, the NYT Company needs to present them a VERY BIG PICTURE, one full of game changing ideas and innovation, not just one that says the advertising revenue is going to crash out by the end of 2010 if we're lucky, and even then, we're still screwed.

Come on NYT: show us the picture and we'll show you the money.
Why in God's name should anyone bail out the NYT if either they are a) interested in making money (which is why I think they could be bailed by people who aren't) or b) typical investors/lenders who require something to invest in/lend to CALLED A NEW BUSINESS PLAN, because the current one is, well, crap.
It's really not that complicated: we all know advertising is tanking, that it will take till we're dead for online revenues to take up the strain and that newspaper demographics are trending into a slurry pit.
And we all know the banks are about to ask questions about the lending to which the NYT doesn't have answers without killing themselves and their staff and what essentially they are. So they just have to come up with a plan.
Easy to say isn't it?
Well, actually, yes it is. Because I and others have them. I'm not chucking them up here for free however.

It reminds me of Friedman's typically naive recent column imploring the international community to 'show Obama the money' (and troops and aid and diplomatic support etc).
As one astute IHT reader pointed out, first, on what basis should ANYONE show the US government ANY money?
Obama has to show US (that would be us, the world, not the U.S.A) the BIG PICTURE, his business plan for the world and America, just like the NYT has to show a lender some god-damn half-decent ideas about its future.
Snap to boys and girls and smell the coffee.



Opinion: Questioning the The New York Times business model?
Posted by
Rosemary D'Amour on November 12, 2008 at 4:18 PM
For over 100 years,
The New York Times has set the standard for print publications in the US and all over the world. In an article on Monday, Scholars and Rogues, a blog offering commentary and analysis on breaking news, said that the legacy could be close to its end, because the Times has "significant debt coming due, and insignificant cash on hand."Scholars and Rogues comments that the Times did not accept the Internet as an "effective colleague" to distribute news and information, regarding it as "ineffective." This has now proven "costly," as the numbers indicate.
Scholars and Rogues reports that while the Times' online readership remains high, "it's not translating into sufficient online advertising revenue." According to
Henry Blodget of the Silicon Valley Insider, based on recent NYTCo. filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Times owes $453 million more than it has. The Times' business model, which has been applied by many publications, is "faltering." It faces the problem that every other newspaper in the United States faces - how to make online adverting pay off fast enough to keep up with costs. According to Scholars and Rogues, "Internet ad revenues, though increasing, will not produce sufficient revenue soon enough to stave off drastic, perhaps catastrophic, changes in the newspaper industry."So the question is, what can the NYT do to cut costs and remain afloat? Will cutting jobs be enough? Will they need to end print editions? An interesting point, "any change in the Times company's business model will influence the readership habits and information needs and wants of millions of people." Keeping this in mind, they will need to find a solution that both allows them to maintain their status and have the resources to provide quality news coverage.

P.S If you were on the ball today you could have had yourself some NYT Company action for as little as $7.33. Currently trading, as of about 20 minutes ago, at $7.57. That's nearly 46% down over 3 months.
$7 here we come and half the value of the world's largest economy's No. 1 newspaper site blown away in 3 months. Oh yeah, there's a future on the Internet for quality content providers. Just not much money.
This year is like watching the Berlin Wall coming down.

New York Times Co
(NYT:NYQ)
NYT on other Exchanges
7.57 USD Last
-0.13 -1.69% Change
1.5M Above Average Volume

Data as of November 13, 2008 14:17 exchange time. Market data is delayed by at least 20 minutes



READ AN ALTERNATIVE IHT DAILY NARRATIVE AT
A PLACE IN THE AUVERGNE




LOOKING FOR A CHRISTMAS BOOK GIFT TO BUY?
"Books about cosmopolitan urbanites discovering the joys of country life are two a penny, but this one is worth a second glance. Walthew's vivid description of the moral stress induced by his job as a high-flying executive with the International Herald Tribune newspaper is worth the cover price alone…. Highly recommended."
The Oxford Times

Amazon.co.uk




'I read
A Place in My Country with absolute unalloyed delight. A glorious book.'
Jeremy Irons (actor)

‘Ian Walthew was a newspaper executive with a career that took him round the world, who one day did a mad thing. He saw a for-sale sign on a cottage in the Cotswolds, bought it, resigned and moved in. For the first few weeks he just lay on the grass in a daze. Then he started talking to his neighbours and digging into the rich history of this beautiful part of England. Out of his inquiries grew this affecting and inspiring memoir.What sets it apart from others of its ilk is the author’s enviable immunity to cliché and his determination to love his homeland better than he used to.
His elegiac account of relearning how to be an Englishman should be required reading for anyone who claims to know or love this country. Financial Times

Amazon.com

For more reviews visit
ianwalthew.com



Business trip to the IHT in Paris or friends and family coming to visit you? Fed up with hotels? Bring the family (sleeps 6) to superb Montmartre apartment - weekend nights free of charge if minimum of 3 work nights booked;. Cable TV; wifi, free phone calls in France (landlines); large DVD and book library; kids toys, books, travel cot and beds; two double bedrooms; all mod cons; half an hour to Neuilly and 12 mins walk from Eurostar. T&E valid invoices.


10% Discount for NYT employees; 15% Discount for IHT Employees



International Herald Tribune
IHT
New York Times
The NYT Company






Monday, 10 November 2008

New Low for New York Times Company, New Look for FT.com

Look at this for a new low. Your NYT Company shares, as of about 20 minutes ago were trading -32.4% down on the last three months. Time to buy?

New York Times Co
(NYT:NYQ) 8.95 USD Last
-0.37 -3.97% Change
240.0K Below Average Volume

Data as of November 10, 2008 12:22 exchange time. Market data is delayed by at least 20 minutes.
Today's Open
9.44 USD
Previous Close
9.32 USD
Today's High
9.44 USD
Today's Low
8.92 USD
Today's Volume
240.0K
Avg Volume (10 day)
1.3M
Meanwhile I received this from FT.com
Worth checking out as www.iht.com works on its planned Q1 '09 move to www.nytimes.com.
Usual talk of community and blogs.
Why has it taken this damn long for papers like this to get with it? What is it with them?


Dear FT.com reader,

Here's a sneak preview of our new-look homepage, which launches this week. We're aiming for a more sophisticated look and feel that is consistent with the Financial Times brand - a clean and uncluttered executive briefing on the world of global business.


This is the first step in a series of design changes and functional improvements that will be rolled out across the rest of the site as they become available. These include:

  • expanded coverage of important subjects such as macroeconomics,
    energy and technology

  • better integration between market data and news, to give context
    to market movements

  • more opportunities for users to become part of the Financial Times
    community by contributing to our discussion forums and blogs

    Of course, many of the things we're working on we hope you'll hardly notice at all. Planned improvements to the behind-the-scenes nuts and bolts of our publishing system will make the site quicker and easier to use. Please bear with us while we get there.


    For a preview of the new-look homepage and to give your feedback, please
    visit here.

    We hope you approve and we appreciate your views.

    Sincerely


    Lionel Barber
    Editor, Financial Times

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LOOKING FOR A CHRISTMAS BOOK GIFT TO BUY?
"Books about cosmopolitan urbanites discovering the joys of country life are two a penny, but this one is worth a second glance. Walthew's vivid description of the moral stress induced by his job as a high-flying executive with the International Herald Tribune newspaper is worth the cover price alone…. Highly recommended."
The Oxford Times


Amazon.co.uk

'I read A Place in My Country with absolute unalloyed delight. A glorious book.'
Jeremy Irons, Actor and IHT Reader.


Amazon.com


For more reviews visit ianwalthew.com



Business trip to the IHT in Paris or friends and family coming to visit you? Fed up with hotels? Bring the family (sleeps 6) to superb Montmartre apartment - weekend nights free of charge if minimum of 3 work nights booked;. Cable TV; wifi, free phone calls in France (landlines); large DVD and book library; kids toys, books, travel cot and beds; two double bedrooms; all mod cons; half an hour to Neuilly and 12 mins walk from Eurostar. T&E valid invoices.


10% Discount for NYT employees; 15% Discount for IHT Employees




International Herald Tribune
IHT
New York Times
The NYT Company

Friday, 31 October 2008

NYT Company Stock Price



New York Times Co
(NYT:NYQ)
NYT on other Exchanges
9.93 USD Last
+0.21 +2.16% Change
Data as of October 30, 2008 00:00 exchange time. Market data is delayed by at least 20 minutes

READ AN ALTERNATIVE IHT DAILY NARRATIVE AT
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LOOKING FOR A CHRISTMAS BOOK GIFT TO BUY?
"Books about cosmopolitan urbanites discovering the joys of country life are two a penny, but this one is worth a second glance. Walthew's vivid description of the moral stress induced by his job as a high-flying executive with the International Herald Tribune newspaper is worth the cover price alone…. Highly recommended."
The Oxford Times


Amazon.co.uk

Amazon.com
For more reviews visit ianwalthew.com



Business trip to the IHT in Paris or friends and family coming to visit you? Fed up with hotels? Bring the family (sleeps 6) to superb Montmartre apartment - weekend nights free of charge if minimum of 3 work nights booked; Cable TV; wifi, free phone calls in France (landlines); large DVD and book library; kids toys, books, travel cot and beds; two double bedrooms; all mod cons; half an hour to Neuilly and 12 mins walk from Eurostar. T&E valid invoices.


10% Discount for NYT employees; 15% Discount for IHT Employees




International Herald Tribune
IHT
New York Times
The NYT Company

Wednesday, 29 October 2008

NYT Stock Price

New York Times Co
(NYT:NYQ)
NYT on other Exchanges
10.08 USD Last
+0.57 +5.99% Change
-- Volume

Avg Volume (10 day)
1.7M
Fundamentals
Market Capitalization
1.4B
P/E Ratio (TTM)
20.1x
EPS (TTM)
0.50 USD
Dividend
0.92 USD
Yield
9.13%
Ex Dividend Date
08/28/08
Shares Outstanding
143.0M

Tuesday, 28 October 2008

NYT Company Stock Price and Market Tools on IHT.com


First off, Monday wasn't quite as bad as I had expected, for the (ex-Asia) markets in general. I still think however that we're a long way from the markets bottoming out.

That said, had you been a bottom buyer yesterday, you could have picked up some NYT stock for less than $9. (Remembering that all that yield and dividend will surely change next year, which isn't helping the price recover.)

From a February '08 high of $21 the NYT has lost over 53% of it's value and nearly 80% of its value from a January '04 high of $48.

I must say, I really do like the market tools on www.iht.com and find them much better than what is available on www.nytimes.com for example. I hope the NYT will realise this when www.iht.com is folded into www.nytimes.com


New York Times Co
(NYT:NYQ)
NYT on other Exchanges
9.51 USD Last
-0.04 -0.42% Change
2.1M Above Average Volume

Data as of October 27, 2008 16:03 exchange time. Market data is delayed by at least 20 minutes.
Today's Open
9.45 USD
Previous Close
9.55 USD
Today's High
9.68 USD
Today's Low
8.92 USD
Today's Volume
2.1M
Avg Volume (10 day)
1.7M
Fundamentals
Market Capitalization
1.4B
P/E Ratio (TTM)
19.0x
EPS (TTM)
0.50 USD
Dividend
0.92 USD
Yield
9.67%
Ex Dividend Date
08/28/08
Shares Outstanding
143.0M

READ AN ALTERNATIVE IHT DAILY NARRATIVE AT
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LOOKING FOR A CHRISTMAS BOOK GIFT TO BUY?
"Books about cosmopolitan urbanites discovering the joys of country life are two a penny, but this one is worth a second glance. Walthew's vivid description of the moral stress induced by his job as a high-flying executive with the International Herald Tribune newspaper is worth the cover price alone…. Highly recommended." The Oxford Times


Amazon.co.uk

Amazon.com


For more reviews visit www.ianwalthew.com



International Herald Tribune
IHT
New York Times
The NYT Company


Vacation /Business Trip Furnished Rental Apartment in Paris

Monday, 27 October 2008

NYT Company Stock Price




Big dip this morning, recovering, as is the FTSE in London, but it ain't over yet, this Monday.





READ AN ALTERNATIVE IHT DAILY NARRATIVE AT
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LOOKING FOR A CHRISTMAS BOOK GIFT TO BUY?
"Books about cosmopolitan urbanites discovering the joys of country life are two a penny, but this one is worth a second glance. Walthew's vivid description of the moral stress induced by his job as a high-flying executive with the International Herald Tribune newspaper is worth the cover price alone…. Highly recommended." The Oxford Times

Amazon.co.uk



Amazon.com




For more reviews visit www.ianwalthew.com


International Herald Tribune
IHT
New York Times
The NYT Company


Vacation /Business Trip Furnished Rental Apartment in Paris



Saturday, 25 October 2008

NYT Company Stock Price and My Portfolio: Fight or flight?

I visit http://www.nytimes.com/ and find that My Portfolio is missing. Am I being dumb. I go to My Times (which, by the way, is just awful in terms of setting up a NYT for a non-U.S. reader) and can't find it there either.

I go to http://www.nytco.com/


So what was the closing price of the NYT Company last night?






45 cents below $10.

$10 for me has always been the tipping point price.

With all the bad news from last week I blogged on, and more I am yet to do (notably the Moody's credit rating moves), and with a shocking Friday on WS (which surely anyone with a brain knew was coming), I can't say this is a surprise.

The question for NYT Company investors is quite simply this.


Fight or flight?

This company is in deep trouble.

They have to come up with a game-changing plan so good investors will go for it. Have they got one? I see no evidence.

They have to reduce debt and off-load some assets.

The Boston Globe? The regionals? The IHT? Who would buy them in this market and at what price? Who knows....



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International Herald Tribune
IHT
New York Times
The NYT Company


Vacation /Business Trip Furnished Rental Apartment in Paris


Friday, 24 October 2008

NYT Company Stock Price

The markets seem to agree with those Q3 results - in line with analysts' expectations.

But I think they are factoring in a sharp drop in the dividend ($25 million alone to family members with $1.2 billion of debt, so the question is, will the family stand firm on this and not do a Bancroft when someone comes tapping on the door).



Name
Last price
1-day$ change
1-day% change
30-day% change
Shares
Totalvalue

New York Times Company NYT: NYSE
$10.70
$0.02
+0.19%
–25.90%

News Corporation NWS.A: NYSE
$9.00
$0.54
+6.38%
–30.02%

Pearson PLC. PSO: NYSE
$9.67
$0.32
+3.42%
–11.53%



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International Herald Tribune
IHT
New York Times
The NYT Company

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Thursday, 23 October 2008

The Newspaper Industry's Latest Challenges (Seeking Alpha.com)

October 23, 2008 about stocks: GCI / MNI / NYT / WPO
It seems like every week we hear more news heralding the newspaper industry's struggle and decline. There's no question the credit crunch and its various effects -- from making credit tight to hurting the advertising industry -- is making an already suffering business even worse.
Now a handful of prominent newspapers around the country announced they're leaving the Associated Press organization to trim costs. The Tribune Company, one of the nation's largest newspaper chains, the Columbus Dispatch and others are giving the A.P. two years notice. They may change their mind, or this could be a threat to get the A.P. to lower its costs, but contractually they need to give the two years notice so these papers are setting themselves up to cut up to hundreds of thousands of dollars from annual budgets, also leaving them with much less, if any, international coverage.
Meanwhile the Tribune Company plans to borrow $250 million from an existing credit facility. It seems safe to say that the newspaper publisher that owns the Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune has been struggling-- most recently struggling to pay down billions of dollars in debt taken on when Sam Zell took the company private last year. When Zell led the privatization of Tribune, many on Wall Street wondered if Zell, known for buying up distressed assets, knew something the rest of the investing community didn't. Now it appears he doesn't.
The statistics bear out all this bad news. Goldman Sachs' analyst Peter Appert tells me that newspapers are suffering their worst stint since the great depression. Newspaper stocks are on the whole down over 60 percent year to date, about twice the drop of the S&P. Newspaper advertising revenue has fallen about 25 percent over the last two years, in a bit of a perfect storm. There are secular pressures, as newspaper ads lose ground to the more flexible and measurable Internet ad format. And now there's this industry-wide ad downturn. On top of all that, newsprint costs are expected to rise between 20 and 30 percent over the next several quarters. Ouch.
Brand names like the New York Times (
NYT) and Washington Post Company (WPO) will retain their value, but Wall Street analysts are telling me they expect those companies as well as the likes of Gannett (GCI) and McClatchy (MNI) to restructure -- slim down with a greater emphasis on their websites. Analysts for the most part recommend investors wait on the sidelines until these stocks start to turn around, but the one stock I'm hearing more positive buzz about is Gannett because it's trading at a historically low multiple and it has a healthy dividend yield (now around 10 percent). That said, this isn't the last of the industry's bad news.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/101465-the-newspaper-industry-s-latest-challenges






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IHT
New York Times
The NYT Company

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How's that stock price taking the NYT Q3 results?


NYT Stock Prices - creeping down to $10.00

If the share price falls below $10.00 is it time to start buying NYT stock? I have my views, but I'm not a stock picking site.



Name
Last price
1-day$ change
1-day% change
30-day% change
Shares
Totalvalue


New York Times Company NYT: NYSE
$10.68
–$1.20
–10.10%
–26.34%

News Corporation NWS.A: NYSE
$8.46
–$0.75
–8.14%
–34.57%

Pearson PLC. PSO: NYSE
$9.35
–$0.52
–5.27%
–17.91%

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International Herald Tribune
IHT
New York Times
The NYT Company


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Wednesday, 22 October 2008

NYT Stock Prices

Here's the latest (last post on this here):


Name
Last price
1-day$ change
1-day% change
30-day% change
Shares
Totalvalue

New York Times Company NYT: NYSE
$11.88
–$1.20
–9.17%
–21.32%

News Corporation NWS.A: NYSE
$9.21
–$0.46
–4.76%
–32.92%

Pearson PLC. PSO: NYSE
$9.87
–$0.30
–2.95%
–15.57%

Just for the record, here's this year's story, in advance of tomorrows' Third-Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference Call. This will be at 11 a.m. (NY time) and will be webcast. To access the call, dial (877) 741-4245 (in the U.S.) and (719) 325-4830 (international callers). Participants should dial into the conference call approximately 10 minutes before the start time. Online listeners can link to the live webcast here.

New York Times Company NYT: NYSE
52 Week High
$21.14
52 Week Low
$11.22


Oh happy US$45 days and oh, how the names have changed of the analysts and their companies that follow NYT Company.

Barclays Capital
Craig Huber


Benchmark Company
Edward Atorino


Deutsche Bank Securities
David Clark


Goldman Sachs
Peter Appert


J.P. Morgan
Alexia Quadrani


Wachovia Securities
John Janedis






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IHT
New York Times
The NYT Company

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Tuesday, 21 October 2008

NYT Stock Prices

Name
Last price
1-day$ change
1-day% change
30-day% change
Shares
Totalvalue

New York Times Company NYT: NYSE
$13.08
$0.57
+4.56%
–13.38%

News Corporation NWS.A: NYSE
$9.67
$0.59
+6.50%
–29.57%

Pearson PLC. PSO: NYSE
$10.17
$0.71
+7.51%
–13.00%




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IHT
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Monday, 20 October 2008

Where are we with those NYT Company equity prices?

16.51; CET.

Name
Last price
1-day$ change
1-day% change
30-day% change
Shares
Totalvalue

New York Times Company NYT: NYSE
$12.78
$0.27
+2.16%
–15.36%

News Corporation NWS.A: NYSE
$9.66
$0.58
+6.39%
–29.64%

Pearson PLC. PSO: NYSE
$9.75
$0.29
+3.07%
–16.60%




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Friday, 17 October 2008

Media stocks yesterday.


The IHT's three main competitors today are the WSJ and the FT.

As a result, and given the extraordinary market conditions, I am going to keep you posted on performances.

Firstly, current trading prices on NYSE as of time of blog post or a few mins. before.

Data coming from My Portfolio on http://www.nytimes.com/




Name
Last price
1-day$ change
1-day% change
30-day% change
Shares
Total value


New York Times Company NYT: NYSE
$12.53
$0.00
0.00%
–10.44%


News Corporation NWS.A: NYSE
$9.34
$0.00
0.00%
–25.04%

Pearson PLC. PSO: NYSE
$9.72
$0.00
0.00%
–14.41%





Now Analysts Recommendations:


Name
Consensus recommendation
EPS estimate (2009)
Target price
Long-termgrowth rate

New York Times Company NYT: NYSE
Hold
$0.79
$9.67
+4.0%


News Corporation NWS.A: NYSE
Outperform
$1.22
$17.00
+11.0%


Pearson PLC. PSO: NYSE
Outperform
$0.92
$14.05
+10.0%

Cheers.





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Thursday, 16 October 2008

Pearson shares rise (IHT)

It's important to remember that Pearson's flagship FT, and one of the IHT's main competitors, along with the WSJ, represents a very small part of Pearson's total revenue. On that note:

Sales were up 11 percent at the FT Group and advertising revenues at FT Publishing were 1 percent ahead of 2007.
That all said, it has outperformed European media stocks by 9% over the last 15 months, and rose it tough market conditions no less than 4.3 percent to 583.5 pence yesterday. But remember the head days of £15 plus prices?


Reuters
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
By Dan Lalor and Kate Holton
Publishing group Pearson said its adjusted 2008 earnings per share should be towards the top end of current market estimates if the dollar maintains gains versus sterling.
The owner of The Financial Times also said on Wednesday it was trading in line with expectations, with sales up 8 percent and operating profit up 11 percent at constant exchange rates in the nine months to end-September.
Sales were up 3 percent on an underlying basis.
The news sent shares in the Penguin books owner up 4.3 percent to 583.5 pence in early trading against an otherwise lower market, as analysts welcomed the "reassuring" statement.
"We're naturally cautious about the global economic conditions, but we have good trading momentum, innovative products, resilient businesses and a strong balance sheet," Pearson chief executive Marjorie Scardino said in a statement.
"We are trading in line with our expectations and we remain on track to make further progress on our financial goals in 2008," the group said.
Analysts' median forecast is for an adjusted 2008 EPS of 49.25 pence from Pearson, based on a range from 45.65 to 52.8 pence, according to Reuters Estimates.
Pearson said its education business was trading in line with expectations, with sales up 10 percent and margin guidance unchanged.
It expects 2008 margins to be similar to the 2007 levels, even after "significant expensed integrations costs" and it expects margin improvements in 2009 and beyond.
Sales were up 11 percent in the North American education division and it expects full-year sales to grow by around 10 percent, or by 2 to 4 percent on an underlying basis.
Sales were up 11 percent at the FT Group and advertising revenues at FT Publishing were 1 percent ahead of 2007. Sales were up 3 percent at Penguin and it expects a good performance in the important fourth-quarter Christmas selling period.
Analysts mostly welcomed the statement as reassuring but RBS Media did note that the education division and Penguin had slowed in the third quarter compared to the first half.
"While the 9 month organic growth of 3 percent is respectable, and the company reiterated guidance for low single digit revenue growth for the full-year, we note that Education slowed meaningfully in Q3 (H1 growth of 4 percent vs 9 month growth of 1 percent), as did Penguin (H1 organic growth of 9 percent vs 9 month growth of 4 percent).
"Pearson's business is late cycle, we expect Pearson's organic growth to slow to 1 percent in 2009 as state funding for education slows," they said.
Pearson shares, which have outperformed other leading European media stocks by 9 percent over the past 12 months, closed at 559.5 pence on Tuesday to value the business at 4.37 billion pounds.
(Reporting by Dan Lalor and Kate Holton; Editing by Hans Peters)

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