Sunday, 19 October 2008

For the IHT, the most worrying bearish 2009 forecast I have seen

There has been no shortage of bearish 2009 advertising revenue forecasts. This one isn't new, but that it is carried by WWD touches upon one of the most important advertising categories for the International Herald Tribune - the fashion industry. To be read with alarm in some quarters I would think.

Question: Is Suzy Menkes Power recession proof? And what happens, if, when, she retires - where is the succession plan and what is it going to cost the IHT to make that hire?

S&P BEARISH ON PRINT ADS: Add Standard & Poor’s to the growing list of industry watchers down on print advertising, at least for now.
“High debt levels, migration of ad spending to the Internet, declining newsstand sales and mature industry growth prospects suggest a near-term decline in credit risk,” the ratings service said. S&P expects magazine ad pages to decline through the end of 2008, with “minimal benefit from election-year activity,” it said, adding, “The sector will face continued ad rate challenges, especially given pressure on circulation levels that publishers guarantee to advertisers.”
As for newspapers, S&P expects newspaper revenue and cash flow to continue to drop “at rates that accelerate each quarter.” “The pullback in advertising dollars has been so dramatic that publishers have struggled to adjust their cost structures,” the agency said. Five out of the nine rated newspaper companies are “CCC,” “signaling a near-term liquidity threat.”
The New York Times Co. was placed on CreditWatch in July after the company reported a drop in earnings before interest, taxes, appreciation and amortization of 36 percent for the second quarter, compared with the same period during the prior year.S&P expects the economic downturn will bottom out in early- to mid-2009 — although it doesn’t expect a pickup in activity until late 2009.
“As a result, we expect total ad spending to be minimally higher (0.9 percent) in 2009,” the report said. — Amy Wicks


International Herald Tribune
New York Times
The NYT Company

Vacation /Business Trip Furnished Rental Apartment in Paris

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